Category Archives: Domestic Affairs

Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Kevin's Lifestyle Blog, Lifestyle

CPI Numbers and Fed Funds Rate Denotes Higher for Longer Inflation and Interest Rates For The Long-Term

Leave a comment

The Bureau for Labor Statistics recently reported that the Consumer Price Index Rose 0.3 Percent, for the Month of April. This is in keeping with Wall Street’s Inflationary expectations, coming in better than average.

This is better than the previous two months of the year, which saw a surprise increase in inflationary numbers of 0.4 Percent (February), and 0.4 Percent (March), as well. This decrease in the CPI, the main inflationary gauge for the United States Economy, means that the United States Federal Reserve year belt tightening measures, to combat inflation, appear to be continuing unabated.

And also points to an additional round of rate cuts, which are expected by most economist to occur before the end of Summer.  

I’m of the same mind as the esteemed Economist, and Fed Watcher Ethan Harris, of Bank of America. That if CPI, and Core CPI remain relatively high, I actually think that denotes a stronger than average economy, and points to a persistence of the Fed Funds Rate remaining high in the short term, and then only later, towards the middle of next year, beginning to resume its normal inflationary curve. My most pressing issue, as of late has been the softness in the Real Estate Sector, of not only the United States, but in most emerging, and industrialized economies as well.

The most probable cause, and this has to do with Consumer Wages, and Spending, is the presence of higher than normal revolving credit balances, in individual consumer finances, and so the economy as a whole.

The United States, which currently has over $2 Trillion Dollars in Revolving Credit Debt on its consumers balance sheets. Is on par with the amount of debt which is held, as a whole, between individual consumers in the rest of the World’s economies. Especially in the Developing World, and more importantly Emerging Economies, which have seen a lack of growth, due to a decline in Foreign Direct Investment, Year to Date.

This cycle of Consumers spending more than they make, has existed for some time, especially in more industrialized economies like the United States, East Asia, and Europe. However, it has led to, along with the Feds belt tightening measures, after the March 2020 collapse in output, and inflation, a substantial increase in the volatility of the U.S. Mortgage Market, owing from an economy wide collapse in output, and thus a decrease in Housing Starts in general.

My main takeaways from our current economic impasse, is that the economy will follow the successful “flight path” recovery which has occurred in the United States Aviation Industry post COVID-19. This is assuming that the Fed keeps interest rates higher for longer, and so is in line with the UBS estimates of a later than average round of cuts which would occur closer to the end of this year, during the holiday season. Rather than in the middle of the year, as most economist have estimated.   

A Moment Of Your Time..., Character Building Exercises, Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Kevin's Lifestyle Blog, Lifestyle, Political Theory, Public Health Policy

Artificial Intelligence, Ben-Hur, And The Making Of Modern American Cinema

1 Comment

Recently I was walking through the park with somebody I know, and he brought up the subject of film, and his fascination with the motion picture. I was at the time beginning to attend an online seminar on film, and photography. And so was happy to share my thoughts on the subject. Eventually the conversation began to turn to Charlton Heston, and his display of acting chops in the seminal, Roman, classical masterpiece Ben-Hur. Heston, someone I would meet in 2003, during my first stint in Hollywood. Had, by the time I met him, become heroic action figure come to life. As the titular movie star, and the then namesake of the National Rifle Association. A Republican leaning Washington run Gun Control Advocacy, and International Lobby. My expectations when first meeting him, Heston, were not at all unlike others, whom would broach a conversation with him at the time. His svelte, and smooth, almost figurine like charisma, and leading man archetypal body type. Along with his bright blue eyes, chiseled jaw line, and approachable good looks and smile. You sometimes wondered out loud, at this more youthful, and exuberant age, as I was, whether a career in cinema, was truly something which was meant to occur for only people like him. And whether this “A-List”, included yourself as its own. As I spoke to him, however, I could tell that even at the advanced age he was at, me being just nineteen at the time. That his reputation preceded him, and that his strength, wit, and acuity, were just as strong then, as they were in his heyday.

But as I was saying, as I spoke to my friend about this meeting, and just, movies and politics in general. I eventually began to elaborate on Heston, and the individuals whom made the Epic Movie Ben-Hur become a reality. Epic’s, at the time were some of the most expensive, complicated, and time consuming projects of Movie Cinema at the time. Akin to our modern day versions of Steven Spielberg led “Jurassic Park”, or Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “Terminator” Franchise. And their skill and craft, necessitated that their budgets were often into the millions of dollars, and required years of prepositioning, and planning, an order to execute. This was true of Ben-Hur, which aside from a few other select films, Ridley Scott Born “Spartacus” not excepted. Were the only ones that truly existed.

At the beginning of the 1970’s, the movie industry was in transition. Metro Goldwyn Mayer, the, at the time, most prestigious, and vaunted movie making studio, and the vehicle for countless A-List movie stars. Had found itself in a decided slump releasing just two Oscar winning films over the course of three years. This, which worried the executives at the head of the then transitioning corporation. Were rattled even more by the inclusion in the mix, of several relatively unknown, but then seasonal Oscar winning studios which had recently been created, after a United States Supreme Court Ruling, that guaranteed the freedom of speech of several important actors, and actresses in the Movie, and Entertainment Industry. Whom were frustrated by the way they, and their intellectual property were being treated by the “big three” studios, MGM, Warner Bros., and 20th century Fox. Whom were at the time, in control of almost every single American Movie Making Contract, and Movie ever made in the Industry.

This pronouncement by the high court, meant that almost every single movie that was ever made throughout the time of the formation of the studios, to then, would have to be released, or re-released through accompanying subsidiaries. However, rather than continuing to concentrate power into the hands of this handful of studios, as the court had originally intended. It instead “spun off”, at least three high profile “little three” studios, Paramount Pictures, Tri-Star (United Artist) Pictures, and Universal Pictures. Which were then free to release, and re-release the content, at a premium to eagerly waiting consumers, and movie goers. A similar event occurred at the apex of the invention of the video tape.

These, and other worrying events, including a backlash in global, and world affairs to Hollywood movie making (The Tet Offensive, Iran Hostage Crisis), sets the stage for the acquisition of, and chief executive tenure of Bob Evans. The one-time Hollywood leading man. Evans, someone who grew up around those with the means, and knowhow to create films. Quickly rose through the ranks of the Hollywood establishment, and soon found himself burgeoning on the mediocrity, of chairmanship of one of the largest movie producing filmmakers of the twentieth century, Paramount Pictures.

But before Evans could take the helm, it was incumbent upon him to both satiate the studio execs appetite for successive films, as well as anticipate audiences, and their quickly varying taste. In a stroke of both science, as well as artistic genius. He wins the chairmanship by promising not one, but two filmmaking “Epics” within his first year at the helm. One which would be directed by a well-known filmmaker, would eventually become the movie which he eventually acquired from MGM, and re-released, the Charlton Heston led Ben-Hur. The other, which was a project which centered around the Vietnam war, Platoon, would take another decade before release, and be the second directorial debut from a young and upcoming filmmaker named Francis Ford Coppola. And in a twist of magic, which only Bob Evans, could truly encapsulate, he at the last minute for the executives, debuts a third “upcoming” film which was only half finished by the young Ford Coppola. But starred a face which was immediately recognizable to the heads of the studios involved, the reclusive, brilliant, and enigmatic Marlon Brando, as the title character for the movie “The Godfather”. This scene, which includes the first fifteen minutes of the Francis Ford Coppola Directed “The Godfather”. Is one of the most famous in movie making lore, and by the time Brando steps onto the stage, to collect an Oscar, for one of his most dramatic, and endearing roles ever in 1973. Evans, had firmly supplanted the “big three” studios, and had on the way, accidentally reinvented the filmmaking industry, while making Columbia, Tri-Star(United Artist), and Paramount, Billions in the process.

This changing of the guard, which famed filmmaker, and director Ridley Scott at first acquiesced to, by releasing the rights, and privileges to an updated digitally “colorized” version of his 1959 “Ben-Hur” epic classic. Remains one of the most mysterious moves a filmmaker has made over the course of the 20th century. After all Ridley Scott, formerly of “Spartacus” fame, already knows that Ben-Hur is one of the highest grossing, but also costliest films to have ever been created. And to add further doubt, and cloud his actions in mystery. He, Scott, had just signed a contract with 20th Century Fox, an order to create at least two more epics over the course of the next twenty years. A Paramount Pictures rival. As for Heston, the re-releases, and its release on Video Cassette Tape, a then newly formed media, later in the decade. Only enhances his, Heston’s, stature, and career. And with the accompanying grosses from the movie sale. Makes him one of the richest men in Hollywood for the next thirty years.

Joel Schumacher, the famed 1980’s producer, and of a similar movie making lineage as Evans. Makes his movie making fortunes off the sale of Ben-Hur to Bob Evans, and Paramount Pictures as well. As he at the time was selling movies, in cassette form from his car out in Los Angeles. And it was said by him, in a later interview, that the receipts from “Ben-Hur alone”, were enough to fund the later John Hughes films, whose rights were acquired from the aforementioned Ridley Scott, whom found Hughes to be “childish”, and “amateurish”, in his approach. But whom would later become the basis for Hollywood pop cultural references, and careers of multiple “Brat Pack” actors, and filmmakers, throughout the 80’s, and early 90’s.

If there’s one thing that could be said about this, is just how much the movie industry is genuinely connected to one another. And how, the most seemingly simplest things, the changing of a CEO, and the invention of the cassette tape. Can transform the entire ecosystem, and landscape of a growing, and evolving, and burgeoning, now Artificially Intelligent Movie Making Industry.

Before I conclude this piece, this seeming happenstance in the movie, and entertainment industry, elucidates a broader, and more salient point about Artificial Intelligence, and change in the Movie Industry.

I want to talk about the big three and their original intentions for Movies, and the movie distribution system, or digital mediums, and inherently the internet itself. There biggest worry at the time, was that the Intellectual Property which they owned. And therefore, the amount of monies, and thereby movies which they could make, would dry up, driving a stake into the heart of the movie making industry as a whole. With the advent of online file sharing websites, and applications. First delegitimated, and then coopted, and legitimated. While being backed by some of the biggest studios in the movie making industry. Along with digital physical media rising. And then co-opted by Microsoft, Apple, and Netflix, into digital arts, and entertainment empires. Has the movie industry worried again about the idea of Artificial Intelligence, and the wherewithal that it will play in the future of cinema. Both here in America, as well as in the future, in other countries, such as China, which may wince at the idea of artificial character creation, and even plotlines, and movie culture as a whole. I feel now, and I do now so as well feel, that the line between art, and fiction are never as clearly delineated, as would be allowed in an earlier time in human history. Therefore, the securing of Intellectual Property rights, and the maintenance of additional United Nations Copyright Laws, and even cultural identity. Play a role in upholding the civil, and moral rights of all citizens of the United States, and indeed, including those whom come from different parts of the World, and some of whom are not even born yet. I call on Congress to help research, and enact customized Intellectual Property laws for this Artificial Intelligence revolution which we are at now going through. And to help secure the intellectual, and property rights of all Americans. From the very wealthy and powerful, to even individuals who are maybe independent in their outlook, but are just as rigorous with the rights, and privileges which they give their intellectual property, as any other would be.

In the past it has been argued that the current state of monopolization of intellectual, and property rights, precludes the idea of intelligence, charisma, and creativity, an order to be successful.

I don’t believe it.

The state of Intellectual Property rights has never been stronger, and the utmost of care can, and should be taken an order secure a soft landing, in this ever evolving landscape. I trust that Congress sees the ideas that have taken root. And while most are legitimate. Some are coercive in their manipulation of names, images, and likenesses. Which is why stronger laws are required an order protect all whom seek to express themselves in the communicative commons of the internet, and beyond. Therefore, the curtailing of these kinds of forces which seek to delegitimize others, and only legitimize untold of untruths, and fallacies, should be included in any pending legislation which is promulgated by the media, the tech industry, or any and all others, whom have a stake in this volatile, and changing landscape.                      

A Moment Of Your Time..., African Affairs, Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, East Asian Affairs, European Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Foreign Policy, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Public Health Policy, Russian Affairs, United Nations Diplomacy

Iranian Nuclear Ambitions (2003-2024)

Leave a comment

Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. For the next 15 years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%. Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time.[1] A nuclear weapon uses a fissile material to cause a nuclear chain reaction. The most commonly used materials have been uranium 235 (U-235) and plutonium 239 (Pu-239). Both uranium 233 (U-233) and reactor-grade plutonium have also been used.[2][3][4]

With Separative Work Units Estimated to begin production of fissile material at about 35 SWU, the estimated amount of fissile material needed to produce one bomb is estimated to be about 30 kilograms, with perfect centrifuge production of such fissile material accomplished after the use of about 50,000 unique centrifuges.[5][6] This is thought to precipitate from the production of crude IR-1 centrifuges which have a Uranium Produced to Centrifuge Use Ratio of 0.0867% (Uranium: Centrifuge Ratio).[7] This is a certain disadvantage for any country which hopes to produce an indigenous supply of fissile material, for any illicit nuclear program, and its activities. This means that an order to produce the previously estimated Separative Work Units needed to attain 30 Kilograms of Low Enriched Uranium (LEU), the program in question would have to expend an inordinate number of centrifuges of the IR-1 grade, which would add up to something of the order of magnitude of at least 122,268,924 Centrifuges, again of the IR-1 generation, which is the crudest workable generation of centrifuges available.

It’s estimated that the Islamic Republic of Iran has about 19,500 of these installed in a cascading assay at any one time.[8] Numbers like these continue for some time when talking about the Uranium to Centrifuge Ratio for less crude centrifuge devices, IR-2, .15937%, topping out at 33,270,455 IR-2 Centrifuges alone an order to produce enough Uranium for one bomb (30 Kgs). IR-3, a respectable centrifuge technology that requires 9,053,185 to produce the same amount of fissile material, giving it a Uranium to Centrifuge Cannibalization Ratio of 0.292843%.

Amongst these lesser centrifuge technologies, it is presumed from testimony from inspectors, and reports from the IAEA, as well as intelligence agencies, that the maximum number of Centrifuges which can be installed at any one time is north of 15,000 per assay, for these centrifuge technologies alone.

This would explain the IR-1 Assay which has over 15,000 centrifuges installed (19,500).[9] 

While IR-4 has a Uranium to Centrifuge Ratio of 0.538099% Cannibalized, meaning that the number of centrifuges needed to produce the requisite amount of LEU fissile material drops considerably to 2,463,451. However, it’s thought that the Iranians only have 5,000 of the more high-tech IR-4 in existence.

But this number is up for discussion and it here posited by me, that the number of centrifuges which are currently put into production by Iran, number at least 10,000 total, with IR-3 being the most plentiful of them all. This means that by most estimates 7,800 may be the maximum declared allotment by the Ayatollah and his regime, but the figure varies accordingly due to the size of the program, meaning suspected undeclared facilities, and the scope and nature of the program as well.[10] After all, it was Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi Fedayeen, who were suspected of concealing what was in fact a defunct Nuclear Weapons Program, on trailers which were supposedly on mobile platforms throughout the desert in 2003.[11]

The number of centrifuges thought to be acquired by Iran, and their efficiency, therefore, begin to deviate from each other dramatically, after this. With highly advanced IR-5, and IR-6 Centrifuges collapsing to no greater than 1,000 for the foreseeable future, after implementation of the JCPOA, and even yet still Cannibalized Yields accelerating to only 1.8% with Centrifuges, and Centrifuges used, numbering in the hundreds of thousands.

The production of these centrifuges, and their capabilities was summed up in Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran, a 2019 book by Robert S. Litwak, from the Woodrow Wilson Center at Princeton University which sums up the state of the program, and the issues succinctly:

“Centrifuges are essential equipment for uranium enrichment, the multistage industrial process in which natural uranium is converted into special material capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction. Natural uranium occurs in two forms—U-238, making up 99 percent of the element, and the lighter U-235, accounting for less than 1 percent. But the latter is a fissionable isotope that emits energy when split. Uranium ore is crushed into a powder, refined, and then reconstituted into a solid form, known as “yellowcake.” The yellowcake is then superheated and transformed into a Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran: gas, uranium hexafluoride (UF6). That gas is passed through a centrifuge and spun at high speed, with the U-238 drawn to the periphery and extracted, while the lighter U-235 clusters in the center and is collected. The collected U-235 material is passed through a series of centrifuges, known as a cascade, with each successive pass-through increasing the percentage of U-235. Uranium for a nuclear reactor should be enriched to contain approximately 3 percent uranium-235, whereas weapons-grade uranium should ideally contain at least 90 percent. Iran developed indigenous facilities to support each phase of the uranium enrichment process: two uranium ore mines, whose reserves could produce 250-300 nuclear weapons, according to U.S. intelligence; a yellowcake production facility; a facility for Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz (aerial view) From Transformational to Transactional Diplomacy converting yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas in Esfahan; and two enrichment sites, Natantz and Fordow, with 19,000 centrifuges, of which some 10,000 were operational. They were predominantly the first-generation IR-1 model, although Iran had begun installing the more sophisticated IR-2 model, which is more reliable and estimated to have six times the output of IR1s. The industrial-scale Natanz site, located 200 miles south of Tehran, could potentially house 50,000 centrifuges. The Fordow enrichment site near Qom is too small to be Economically rational as part of a civil nuclear program and is invulnerable to a military strike because it is deeply buried. Those attributes, as well as its location on a Revolutionary Guard base, aroused concern that its intended purpose was to receive low-enriched uranium produced at Natanz for further enrichment to weapons-grade material.”[12]

Figure 10 Fick’s Equation, Courtesy of National Research Nuclear University (Russia), Nuclear Reactor Physics Basics, Yury Volkov (Instructor), Coursera.org, Accessed On: 2/25/2024

This extant, which was provided by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Public Policy, gives a clear and concise explanation of the basis for ongoing nuclear negotiations, which have currently reached an impasse, as of June 2021.

Add to that a resourceful, and diligent case study of the Ayatollah’s finances in Iran. And it’s estimated that he personally has accumulated over $US 350 Billion Dollars, in personal wealth, over the course of time since the signing of the JCPOA agreement, and the wars in both Syria, Yemen, as well as Gaza. This summation, the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Public Policy Extant, however, does not include the existence of undeclared sites, which may be yet smaller in scope, but could number in the tens or more. The exclusionary nature of the Iranian Nuclear Program, along with its undeclared assets, and facilities, is one of the historical hallmarks of covert nuclear programs around the world, and is what makes it so dangerous. It should be noted however that the main conduits of the Nuclear Program, the Uranium and Plutonium Milling Mines outside of the processing facilities, including Gchine, and Saghand, as per News reports, are no longer functioning, owing to the laborious processes the Iranians have gone through to produce Nuclear Fissile Materials, and the limited capabilities which they have been able to covertly develop, after its acquisition.[13] If true, this revelation should be of the utmost of issues which the Americans, and the other P5+1 interlocutors can use to leverage Iranian compliance with their nuclear program. As the lack of raw fissionable material, negates the programs efficacy for the purposes of exploiting current technologies for the development of Nuclear Fission Weapons. And the inclusion of sensitive monitoring equipment, such as cameras, and other positive scoring sensors, and devices, at these, and other mining, and milling technology sites, must be included in any further discussions of the renegotiation of the JCPOA, and its compliance regime.

Figure 11 CERN Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) Experiment at Light Hadron Collider #2, Cessy, France, Courtesy of the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN)

As for experimental centrifuges which Iran has under its command, the introduction of IR-6s, and IR-7’s was at first thought to completely transform the character and nature of the Iranian nuclear program, and the threat it poses. However, after initial analyses were conducted by western intelligence communities, using lasers pointed at the heat emanating from suspected nuclear sites, it was discovered that the Iranians are enriching at only a slightly more efficient level, and that the amount of these so-called experimental centrifuges must not number in less than 500 totals.

Nevertheless, when they are able to acquire these more advanced centrifuges, the Assay really only begin to decrease to so called super efficiencies at the IR-8 and above. That’s not to say that the amount of Enriched Uranium produced by these centrifuges is negligible, with Cannibalized Assays reported at 11.27%, and 20.71% Respectively, these technologies, should they ever fall into the Government of Iran’s Hands could precipitate another nuclear crisis.

And, while I suspect that the technology already exist. The added knowhow, such as Krytron Switching, and other light, and gas based, vaporous, diaphanous, vaporizing devices. Needed an order to perfect certain Nuclear Fission, and thus Weaponization technologies. I’ve concluded they may not have mastered the knowhow of.  

Figure 12 CERN Light Hadron Collider (b) (LHCb) ALICE Propulsion Experiments. (Image Courtesy of CERN)

Figure 13 CERN ALICE pPb Heavy Ion Collisions Experiments, Courtesy of the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN)

These numbers which are articulated in the above section on capabilities, do not negate the presence of current Iranian enrichment capabilities, indeed by the time the JCPOA negotiations began in 2015, it was already revealed by the Iranian side, that they possessed enough enriched Uranium to make at least five (5) nuclear weapons. The numbers on cannibalized arrays simply relate to the capabilities of their current centrifuge campaign for their Nuclear Weapons Program, and is indicative of the Iranian sides inability to progress past certain technological thresholds.       

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action

 

[2]  Holdren, John; Bunn, Matthew (1997). “Managing Military Uranium and Plutonium in the United States and the Former Soviet Union”. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment. 22: 403–496. doi: 10.1146/annurev.energy.22.1.403.

 

[3] Barnaby, Frank (5 March 2014). Barnaby; Holdstock, Douglas (eds.). Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Retrospect and Prospect. p. 25. ISBN 9781135209933

 

[4] Matthew; Holdren, John P. “Managing military uranium and plutonium in the United States and the Former Soviet Union” (PDF). pp. 403–409.

 

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separative_work_units

 

[6] “Explainer: How close is Iran to producing a nuclear bomb?”, Francois Murphy, Reuters.com, Found At: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-explainer/explainer-how-close-is-iran-to-producing-a-nuclear-bomb-idUSKBN2880NU

 

[7] This ratio is made by taking the amount of Uranium needed for feedstock and dividing it by the number of centrifuges used, an order to obtain 30 Kilograms of High Enriched Uranium. For actual numbers used see the Appendix.

 

[8] Explainer: How close is Iran to producing a nuclear bomb? François Murphy, Reuters.com, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-explainer/explainer-how-close-is-iran-to-producing-a-nuclear-bomb-idUSKBN2880NU

[9] Ibid.

 

[10] The Logic of Restoring Compliance With the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, Arms Control Association, Vol. 14, Issue 2, February 16th, 2022; Found At: https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2022-02/logic-restoring-compliance-2015-iran-nuclear-deal?emci=b29c911a-ad8e-ec11-a507-281878b83d8a&emdi=326f4403-378f-ec11-a507-281878b83d8a&ceid=15330559

 

[11] Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, with Addendums (Duelfer Report), Iraq Survey Group (ISG), Central Intelligence Agency, April 25th, 2005, found at: https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-DUELFERREPORT/, Accessed On: 02/16/2022

 

[12] Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran: From Transformational to Transactional Diplomacy, Pgs. 83-85, Robert S. Litwak, Princeton University Press, 2019

 

[13] Is Iran running out of yellowcake? By David Albright, Jacqueline Shire, and Paul Brannan, February 11, 2009, Institute for Science and International Security, Found At: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Iran_Yellowcake_11Feb2009.pdf, Accessed: 06/06/2021

A Moment Of Your Time..., African Affairs, Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, East Asian Affairs, European Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Foreign Policy, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Public Health Policy, Russian Affairs, United Nations Diplomacy

Introduction: Beyond Globalization

Leave a comment

white smoke coming out from a building
Photo by Marcin Jozwiak on Pexels.com

Globalization, a relatively recent economic phenomena, and norm, at least in its most recent incarnation. Has brought wealth, prosperity, and diversity to billions of individuals worldwide. In the following pages, I try to clarify the effects of Globalization, and its normative successes, as well as failures. I will do this through the lens of a World which has been greatly affected by the COVID-19 crisis, and the resultant regime. And, I will attempt to perceive the future of Globalization. One in which the world is no longer ravaged by famine, plague, and Political disorder. And, one in which the United States, partners with its allies, to create better societies, throughout the World, while at the same time, taking account of the usury, and unobligated expenses, which the worlds remaining dictatorships have been party to.

This appraisal includes Russia, and its wars not only in Ukraine, but Syria as well. And, while the addition of credit extended, and credit used, has propelled dictatorial regimes, such as Iran, North Korea, and Russia, into higher, more prosperous, and more useful credit, and asset classes. Bringing into question the rules, and obligations of the established Global World Order, led by the United States. These credit bubbles, which have instead become a part of the international investment positions of these countries. Has led many millions of the former world’s poor, into levels of attainment, and wealth, never before seen by a great many of them.

And, while these credit snafus, have ultimately only legitimated, and benefitted the regimes in question. The adjoining information is useful, an order to better allow the perception of these misdeeds, as well as the sheer magnitude which they hold in their size, scope, and weight, as failed, or formerly failing nation states. And how that may apply to future conflicts, or even transboundary disputes, which may arise during any given circumstance. Particular attention is paid to the solvency of the European Union, and the United States, as well. 

African Affairs, Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, East Asian Affairs, European Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Foreign Policy, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Public Health Policy, Russian Affairs, United Nations Diplomacy

China and the World: Post COVID-19 and Beyond

Leave a comment

To conclude, the Chinese, mainland’s CCP Government, and its excellent use of the COVID-19 pandemic, an order to perpetuate its standing amongst the Chinese, people, while cherry-picking amongst the United States, and its allies, effectively picking winners, and losers, has become the lost story of our times.

The bellicosity which the Chinese socialist republic has demonstrated, both at home domestically, and economically, as well as in the foreign sphere, with countries such as Myanmar, and Taiwan, have only exacerbated the United States, nascent Great Game, Geo-Political Politics, which have begun to override, and overrule much of United States domestic political, and foreign policy priorities. Especially as relates to COVID-19.

The skillful use, of both legitimate international organizations, such as the World Health Organization, as well as the United Nations, an order to “Build a Vaccine Great Wall”, to both vaccinate, and terrify individual western countries, with the added threat of World Trade Organization tariffs, and fees, for goods, and services coming from China.

[1] While, simultaneously sidelining much of the dissent, and threat of dissent which emanated from within the country, while appeasing those whom were sidelined, yet were reluctant to voice an opinion of opposition to the mainland, and its common cause.

[2] While still being able to manipulate the United States, and its allies, with the concluding touches on the Nile River Dam project.

[3] The renegotiation of trade ties with the United States, and WTO contracts, and 21st century International Intellectual Property Law conferences, which were held almost exclusively in China, and on Chinese terms of endearment, without the explicit participation of any one major United States organ in attendance.

[4] The as yet unconfirmed secret deployment of the Chinese Strategic Defense Initiative, Missile Defense System, or Dragon Shield.

[5] The Chinese People’s Republic’s successful landings on the Moon of at least two orbiting Space Launch Vehicles (SLV’s).

[6] As well as, the secret, and newly verifiable expansion, of the Chinese Militaries secret expansion, of their Strategic Nuclear assets.

[7][8] The adjoining of the Chinese People’s 14th National Congress, with the North Korean 75th anniversary of the People’s Congress.

[9][10] As well as the North Korean’s mysterious lack of any overt signs of the COVID-19 pandemics effects on its economy.

[11] The deployment of a Chinese spying outpost in Cuba, which is less than 90 miles from Florida, and the United States Mainland.

[12] Along with the launching of over 100 missiles to date, total, in the year 2022-2023.

[13] Plus, the mysterious death rumors of the younger grandson of General Mao Tse-tung, in North Korea, towards the beginning of the convening 13th People’s Congress, and the communist cult of mythology undertones, which intermingled with the two events.

[14] And it becomes clear that China has indeed been very productive, and very busy, since the onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This startling turn of events, the maturation, and muscularization of the Chinese People’s Economic, and Military prowess, has only now begun to fully form itself out, taking shape, just as the economic, and material political woes, of Europe, begin to have seemingly take hold.

[15] Emmanuel Macron’s April 2023, trip to China, which has sought to assuage much of Europe’s fears, of a multi-polar dominated world.

[16] And the end of American Hegemony. Has on par met the tenacity of the ascendant Chinese, for now. However, if the wars in Ukraine, and in the Middle East, along with the nascent saber rattling by China, against its erstwhile rebellious neighbors, in Taiwan, continue.

[17] The United States, and Europe, may have to confront not only the declining, yet still animated Russian Republic. But, also, an as yet uncontested, and newly militarily dominant Chinese People’s Republic. Add to that the newly nascent domestic political woes of the United States, and its lack of resolve militarily, in dealing with an as yet uncontested Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.

[18] And the bombing of Israel by Lebanese Hizballah, militias, and ISIS, and the Assad regime, reenergized from their time on the battlefield.

[19] And it becomes clear that the United States, as well as its partners and allies, will have more than their hands full, over the coming decades, with the Chinese People’s Republic taking center stage.         

[1] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/202108/t20210806_9170557.html, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, of the Chinese People’s Republic of China, Accessed On: 4/6/2023

[2] https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/peng-shuai-china-disappeared-how-beijing-silences-critics, Cohen, Jerome, Council of Foreign Relations, November 23, 2021

[3] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/china-expands-its-influence-horn-africa-overlooks-dispute-over-nile-dam, Saied, Mohamed, Al-Monitor, March 29, 2022

[4] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-laws-explainer/explainer-china-changes-laws-in-trade-war-with-u-s-enforcement-a-concern-idUSKCN1SD18G, Reuters Staff, Explainer: China Changes Trade Laws with U.S., Enforcement a Concern, May 7th, 2019

[5] https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/china/china-anti-ballistic-missile-test-intl-hnk/index.html, Jessie, Yeung, China Claims Successful Anti-Ballistic Missile Interceptor Test, June 19th, 2022

[6] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chang-e-5-china-spacecraft-lands-moon/, Harwood, William, China Says Spacecraft Successfully Lands on Moon for Historic Sample Collection, December 1st, 2020,

[7] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/pentagon-sees-faster-chinese-nuclear-expansion, Pentagon Sees Faster Chinese Nuclear Expansion, Shannon, Bugos, Arms Control Association Magazine, December 2021

[8] https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/18/striking-asymmetries-nuclear-transitions-in-southern-asia-pub-87394, Striking Asymmetries: Nuclear Transitions in Southeast Asia, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 18th, 2022

[9] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202210/t20221018_10785042.html, 20th National Congress of Communist Party of China opens in Beijing, Xi Jinping delivers report to Congress on behalf of 19th CPC Central Committee, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, October, 16th, 2022

[10] https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20221207000164, North Korea to Hold Parliamentary Meeting on Jan. 17: KCNA, Korea Herald, December 7th, 2022

[11] https://time.com/6178501/covid-north-korea-kim-jong-un/, Two Million Cases, COVID-19 may finally force North Korea to Open Up, Guzman, Chad, Time Magazine, May 19th, 2022

[12] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/us/politics/china-spy-base-cuba.html, China Has Had a Spy Base in Cuba for Years, U.S. Official Says, NYTIMES.com, Karoun Demirjian, Edward Wong, June 10, 2023

[13] https://www.nytimes.com/article/north-korea-missile-launches.html, North Korea Conducts 7th Missile Test in Less than a Month, Choe-Sang Hun, New York Times, March 26th, 2023

[14] https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/mao-zedongs-grandson-rumoured-to-be-dead-in-north-korea-accident-makes-public, Mao’s Grandson Rumored to be Killed in North Korean Accident Makes Public Appearance, The Straits Times, May 17th, 2018

[15] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/european-central-bank-says-a-recession-has-become-more-likely, European Central Bank says A Recession “Has Become More Likely”, David McHugh, PBS News Hour, November 16th, 2022 

[16] https://www.reuters.com/world/high-hopes-china-eu-leaders-prepare-xi-talks-2023-04-06/, Macron Seeks China’s Help on Ukraine, Xi “Willing” to call Zelenskiy, Reuters.com, Michel, Rose, Laurie, Chen, April 6, 2023

[17] https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/asia-pacific/954343/what-would-happen-china-attempt-invade-taiwan, Is China About to Invade Taiwan, The Week, April 3rd, 2023

[18] https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/12/20/1144502320/the-taliban-took-our-last-hope-college-education-is-banned-for-women-in-afghanis, The Taliban Took Our Last Hope: College Education is Banned for Women in Afghanistan, Diaa, Hadid, National Public Radio, December 22nd, 2022

[19] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-april-6-2023/, IDF Says Hamas Behind Rocket Barrage from Lebanon Israel Expected to Retaliate, Fabian, Emanual, Times of Israel, April 6, 2023

A Moment Of Your Time..., Character Building Exercises, Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Kevin's Lifestyle Blog, Lifestyle, Political Theory, Pre-Wordpress Papers, Public Health Policy

Paper Release: A Discussion on the Release of the New “Uber Eats Index”, and including its Rationale (Chicago), and Efficiencies (Los Angeles)

Leave a comment

Uber Eats Index – Courtesy of Kevin Michael Miller
Uber Eats Index As A Percentage – Courtesy of Kevin Michael Miller

The creator of this paper, after attempting to find the most cost efficient take out order, and order substitution delivery service. And after discovering the ability with the Chase Sapphire Preferred Credit Card. To be able to order, with little to no additional delivery charge, and discounted surcharge, on all Chase Sapphire approved orders, on the Door Dash, a la Uber Eats, Meal Delivery Platform. This, being one of many experiences, which the author has had with the meal delivery service. Including from its earliest worldwide adoption, and service fee, and surcharge model. Led the author, to introduce a Meal Delivery Index, entitled “The Uber Eats Index”. This index includes within his research for this paper, information compiled from The Department of Revenue, at the City Hall of Chicago. As well as the Mayor’s official budget, for the City of Los Angeles.

By using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE). I was able to, by combining the forecasted revenues, as well as the forecasted delivery charges, and sales tax increases, the adjusted value of a non-generic take out menu value meal. Which, if not delivered, in 2007 dollars, would have a nominal tax incentivized value of $15.00, minus the input from the delivery service. Which includes a proprietary Vector Auto Regression (VAR) based model. That incorporates the above stated variables. As well as a proprietary tax modeling equation, which is strictly defined to the Los Angeles Metro Area, and therefore California as a whole.

This non-descript large market, large share “Value Meal”, would inevitably begin to be offered as a delivery item, on the Uber Eats Platform, first in Los Angeles in 2007. And later on, the same platform, and others, in Chicago, and the surrounding Chicagoland Suburban Area. In the summer of 2016. This added value increase to the meals, in the Chicago market. Has been shown to not be adversely affected by higher delivery fees, and charges, due to the price of Oil, and Gas, as well as emerging issues, such as automated delivery driving methods, as well as reforms to the municipal, and state tax ordinances.

This nominal $15 meal, in 2007, which is exemplified in the Chicago market. Would have an end price for delivery, using a mean adjusted Vector Auto Regression, and due to the ongoing wars in Afghanistan, and Iraq, in the Los Angeles area, of nearly $43 dollars ($42.84).

The unfortunate discrepancy in data, between various restaurant’s in this era, and the data, which is publicly available. Taking into account, and along with the Mean adjusted pricing level for the Los Angeles Metro Area Market. Means that we can only guess at the true non-Uber Eats delivery price of the same meal to be about $23.15, or a 54% increase in the amount of money paid for the same amount of food, absent the delivery surge pricing.

As for the future pricing of the same “Value Meal”, which will heretofore, be assigned a nominal 2007 value of $15 USD, has, at 2016 levels, remained at a constant price on the Uber Eats Application throughout 2016 for the Los Angeles Market. Finally dropping in both 2017, and 2018, to a 2018 low of $32.92 USD. Before rising again, in 2019 to $33.55. Presumably due to an increase in competition, and competitive advantages, and cost efficiencies, which were adopted by competitors in the distribution, and meal delivery service app market.

By the end of the first year of the pandemic, in 2020, the presumed cost efficiencies which arose from the decrease in State Wide California Sales Taxes, as well as the stabilization of the meal delivery market in Los Angeles. As well as additional tax efficiencies which arose from the further stabilization of the Los Angeles County, City Wide Tax Code. Produced a return to the price levels that appeared in 2018, nearly two years before the start of the pandemic.

This decrease did not last throughout the inflationary period which followed the ensuing shutdown, and additional health safety measures, which were rigorously enforced in both metropolises, and food services markets of Los Angeles, as well as Chicago. Led to an increase throughout 2021, and up to the current period, to $34.02. From here were able to witness a discontinuity in the amount, and pricing of the nominal “Value Meal” which was originally priced in 2007 at $15 USD. This disaggregation, which has seen Meal Prices, steadily rise in Chicago throughout the same period, until finally in 2023, catching up to the Uber Eats Prices, that were cited as having begun in the Los Angeles Metro Area in 2021, of $34.02. And Have preceded until the end of 2023 for the same metropolitan area.

Looking Forward, by using our DSGE, and Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) Statistical analysis. Which takes into account the past pricing of Meals from Uber Eats, in both sample markets (Chicago, and Los Angeles). Along with past, and future tax provisions, which both preceded, and were following the pandemics beginnings. Were able to find a continuously correlating, and causal price correlation between both Los Angeles Uber Eats final delivery pricing. As well as Chicago’s own. With Chicago (Metro) expected to increase its Uber Eats final delivery pricing for 2024 for the nominal 2007 “Value Meal” to $36.10 USD. This is in contrast to Los Angeles and its metro area, which expects a marked decrease in its final Uber Eats delivery pricing to $30.72 USD. A nearly 11% decrease from its 2023 prices ($34.02).

This decrease in pricing, is more than likely owing to the stabilization in both California, as well as Los Angeles County, and Metro areas, municipal, and state taxes. As well as further cost efficiencies, and windfall profits, which occurred throughout the beginning of the pandemic.

The included chart shows the information contained above, outlining the price and price differences in Uber Eats, and its meal delivery platform.                  

Uber Eats Index – Courtesy of Kevin Michael Miller
A Moment Of Your Time..., African Affairs, Character Building Exercises, Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, East Asian Affairs, European Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Foreign Policy, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Pre-Wordpress Papers, Public Health Policy, Russian Affairs, United Nations Diplomacy

Copy of Letter Sent to The Honorable United States Representative Brad Schneider Dated January 25th, 2024

Leave a comment

To The Honorable Representative of the United States House of Representative, Representative Brad Schneider,

Dear Representative Brad Schneider,

Hello, my name is Kevin Michael Miller, and I’m currently a PhD. MOOC student in neuroscience, as well as Financial Engineering, Economics, and International Politics on the Massively Open Online Course websites, of Edx.org, and Coursera.org. I’m writing an order to convey my appreciation for your recent tele townhall, and its focus on delivering healthcare, and other vital healthcare related needs to the 10th district, and its cohorts. I’m writing this most recent letter, as an addendum to the previous letter which I wrote, concerning the need for proper appropriation, concerning the passage of the 2009 Affordable Care Act, and its provision of constituent services, in the United States Congress. My concerns I felt, were serious enough to warrant a letter to both your office, as well as the Late Senator Dianne Feinstein’s office. And, while I hoped that she would read the contents of my letters, as she’s done so many other times in the past, including during my earliest collegiate years, when I lived in southern California, and successfully campaigned for, and helped win, a successful recall of California Governor Gray Davis, and the election of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, against him. My concerns have been wide ranging since then. And since moving to the 10th Congressional District, here in Illinois. I’m proud to have helped first elect both Mark Kirk, to the United States House of Representatives, as well as to have voted for then State Senator Barack Obama, to the United States Senate. As I’ve said my concerns have been far ranging, and far reaching since then. Including the passage of Opioid and Fentanyl Legislation, so here entitled Matt’s Law (After a High School Classmate of Mine Whom Overdosed on Opioids in an Alleyway in Chicago in 2006). With the help of both the George W. Bush Administration, as well as the administration of then President Barack H. Obama. My most cherished memories of being part of the Republican party, are when I’m able to see legislation such as Opioid Legislation, as well as legislation pertaining to wounded veterans, and soldiers, as well as the other many legislations which I’ve advocated for, and sought to have passed along the way, particularly as concerns Xstat Syringe Wound Treatment systems, for our combat soldiers in Iraq, and Afghanistan, as well as other important legislative accomplishments which I’ve sought, and advocated for, in my twenty-two year long voting record, as well as my twenty-two year incumbency as a member of the Republican Party. I encourage you to find out more about my social, and political activism, particularly as relates to crises which have erupted on the world stage, concerning Ukraine, as well as the Middle East, and Israel. Which can be found at www.kevinspolitics.com. My most singular, and resolute contributions to the state, and its welfare, are found on this website. And it brings me great comfort to know that it will continue in its existence, which has existed in its most current form, since at least February of 2013. I encourage you, and your office to look at this website, for any ideas, or wisdom which you may derive from its political analysis, and content. Just as I encourage then Congressman Dold’s office to do the same, some years prior. My Letter at this juncture, is simply to encourage you to decrease taxes for your constituents, and to reject any legislation which may interfere in the ability for insurance providers to provide safe, and cost effective medications, and other health care needs. This includes legislation which may accelerate the dramatic increases in Government provided Health Insurance which has only continued, even with legislation which I have observed to be illegal, pertaining to the commerce clauses of the constitution. Including one piece of legislation which allows for the sale of unregulated Canadian, and Irish Pharmaceuticals, as replacements for readily produced, safe, and effective medications produced here in the United States. As well as another piece of legislation, which would merge two of the biggest insurance providers in the country Cigna, as well as Humana. Both legislative ideas, which I feel violate at least two significant clauses in the Commerce Act of 1886, as well as the commerce clauses in the United States Constitution. These concerns are only a brief of what I intended to write to you about, and I hope that by sharing my story in a published memoir, upon my graduation from Harvard University. hopefully this spring. That I’m able to further the conversation surrounding politics, diplomacy, but also real life, and what that means for young teens, and adolescents in the 21st century. I plan on supplying a number of copies to your office, upon successful publishing. And I look forward to having greater friendship, and comity with you, as we continue to spark conversations surrounding the everyday needs of the American People, as the Representative of the 10th district, here in Illinois, Dr. Schneider. I wanted to speak about the recent hearing on AI, as well as other just as pertinent world issues, affecting our country, and both parties. But I leave you now, as I hope that your days are merry, for you and your office. And I look forward to hearing more about these topics, from you, and your office. Thank You, and God Bless. – Kevin Michael Miller       

Domestic Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory

Mohamed Kande Chosen to Head Price Waterhouse Cooper A First For An Outside Consultant

Leave a comment

Today, PwC, Price Waterhouse Cooper, announced that their head of Global Consulting Operations, Mohamed Kande, would be tapped to head the company. This makes Kande, the first consultant from outside the company to be hired to the top position.

Mohamed Kande, is easily one of the best picks, Price Waterhouse Cooper could make. With the board lacking an official chain of devolution. And no one yet plausible amongst them, it only made sense that Kande would come to inhabit the spaces within Price Waterhouse Cooper that he has made way as.

If he’s able to continue to streamline the accounting unit, as well as update the processes which they use to enact them, incorporating Artificial Intelligence, Machine, and Language Learning Models. I think he will continue to have the sort of success which has set him apart from more established competitors within the firm. His business savvy, and “street cred”, as one of the foremost accountants, and consultants within that sphere, make him easily one of their best picks, and candidates since the earlier days of consolidation within the industry in the 1990’s.

It’ll be interesting to see whom Kande indeed chooses to surround himself with. Former Citi Bosses Chuck Prince, and Vikram Pandit, are easily within his orbit, as consulting majors. And Michael Corbat still has something to prove after his untimely ouster from the Commercial Mega Bank.

Ursula Burns of Xerox fame may also play a role, as she helped to mitigate losses in their business, at the helm, when the industry was in a period of great transition, and tumult.

A Moment Of Your Time..., African Affairs, Character Building Exercises, Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, East Asian Affairs, European Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Russian Affairs, United Nations Diplomacy

Treaty of the European Union and Basel III Reforms

Leave a comment

Abstract: First I give a brief overview of Article 107 of the Treaty of the EU(TEU). Next, I give a summation of the issues which have come up for the EU in the last decade which have affected state aid, and the guarantees inherent in the Treaty of the EU. These include the Greek Debt Crisis, as well as extraterritorial measures which have been taken an order to further enhance the quality, and characteristics of the EU Charter. Special consideration is given to Basel III reforms, as well as interterritorial EU regulations enacted since.

In the Treaty of the European Union (TEU) there falls Common Article 107. In this article of the European Union Treaty there is the express exclusion of any outside aid to states which may distort, or manipulate, the common cultural, and trade union established within the main text of the European Union Treaty. The text in Article 107 then goes on to explain the types of aid which shall be available to the E.U. Common Market. Thus included: aid having a social character for individual consumers, aid excepted due to natural disasters, and aid granted to the Federal Republic of Germany, or any of its cohorts. It then details a listing of the types of aid which may be seen as compatible with the common market. These are to include: aid which promotes economic development, or an increase in the standard of living, in countries and regions deemed as being underdeveloped, or in need of structural, economic, or social development. Aid to promote the common interest of Europe or to remedy a social disturbance, Aid to promote cultural heritage or conservation. Aid for the facilitating of economic activities or economic areas. As well as any other type of aid which may be forthcoming as specified by a decision of the E.U. Council, or the E.U. Commission.

Article 107 of the European Union Treaty is at the heart, as well as the periphery of several well defined attitudinal Fiscal, as well as Monetary measures which the European Union has pursued in recent years. Following the 2008 Financial Crisis and Worldwide recession, the contours, shape, and character of the European Union’s existence began to be questioned. This was after all one of the largest common markets ever to be created, after NAFTA. The main disagreements about the future of the European Union rested upon what have become issues of great importance. One, was the misbalancing of aide which was available to member states immediately after the crisis, and the perceived monopoly on talent, as well as physical resources and infrastructure which Western European countries were alleged to have “cornered” in the single currency market. As well as the debate over the Greek financial crisis, and the subsequent bailout for Greece, so that it could remain a part of the E.U. These perceived structural flaws, and also the domination of France, Germany, and the U.K. in any bailout negotiations, caused much consternation, and friction amongst fellow E.U. member states, as well as Eurozone, and potential E.U. member states. Then there was the perceived mismanagement of the accession to the E.U. of several Eastern European states, and the rolling out of the Euro to those states which began to rankle some feathers. These problems were only exacerbated by the financial crisis, as well as upheavals in Brussels, the base of operations of the E.U., which was perceived as being too detached from the everyday lives of the E.U. citizens which it was allegedly beholden too. Throughout all of this, the Greek Debt Crisis, the Financial Crisis, accession talks, as well as the perceived structural flaws, was the fact that these institutions which the foundations of Europe rested upon; The Lisbon Treaty, Schengen, the Treaty of the European Union, the Common Currency, and single market; was the fact that these agreements had only been codified into law and implemented in the last decade or so. There was talk of the invoking of Common Article 7 of the E.U. Treaty (TEU), which would have suspended membership rights of certain member states, thus dealing a blow to the E.U. overall.

These were for all intents and purposes, some of the most trying times Europe had ever seen since the Post-War, Post-Cold War era, and yet there was more. The United States was currently engaged in conflicts around the world in GWOT, or the Global War on Terror. These wars, which were in large part a by-product of the attacks on September 11th, were beginning to become financially all consuming, for not only for the United States, but also, in the case of Iraq, Afghanistan, as well as the ISAF, or International Security Assistance Force, for European governments as well. These fissures in international treaties amongst stakeholders, were present not only in the period immediately during, and following the 2008 Financial Crisis, but also in the years leading up to it. These were heady times for Europe indeed.

However, what was not missing were the Western Institutions which made up these treaty obligations in the first place, namely; Rule of Law, Safe Access to the Seas, Liberal Humanistic Traditions, Liberal Economics, Liberal International Traditions, as well as Europe itself. Some of these laws, institutions, and ideas which had been around since before the Romans, may have been shaken, but they were built on sturdy foundations, and though the Common Articles of the Adopted Treaty of Europe were foundational, they were merely a touchstone when viewed through the long lens of European history. And so, though these were difficult times for Europe, this was not a situation altogether foreign to them, and they had been through far worse, with far less, in other words, the E.U. would survive.

This was the case with the further ratification by the E.U. and its member states of the Toledo Protocols. These protocols which are referred to now as the Basel III reforms, were in part spearheaded by the European Union, which were authorized under Common Article 107, as well as the Establishment, and Standard Procedure Clauses of the Charter of the European Union Treaty. These reforms, which were immediately put into practice at Banks, and Financial Institutions around the World, provided for a common language which the Banks, and Governments could have an order to assess risk, as well as the expansion of ratio reserve requirements. There were treaty obligations standardizing an approach to rating credit risk of individuals, and Institutions. There were new Internal Ratings Benchmarks (IRB’s) which were set. New Valuation Risk Frameworks, Operational, as well as Leverage Ratios which were now implemented. As well as output floors and ceilings, along with transitional arrangements meant to smooth the implementation of new rules. These reforms, which The European Union was able to negotiate and ratify for all treaty bound E.U. states, fall under the Standard Procedure Clauses, of the European Union, Which Common Article 107 falls under, and were immediately adopted by the E.U., as well as the Eurozone making them amongst some of the earliest adopters of this international treaty, and providing durable, and stable foundations for the European Union, in the immediate wake, and aftermath of the 2008 Global Recession. All of this was going on in addition to a number of reforms in the Tax Code of the European Ruling, including reforms to the Parent-Subsidiary Rules. These reforms which elaborated upon General Anti-Abuse Measures, Minimum Holding Requirements, as well as a rearrangement of Hybrid Loan Schemes, have become part of the bedrock of the European Union Treaty Laws governing State Aid, and Taxation.   This comeuppance was much needed by the Bureaucrats back in Brussels and other European Capitals and would serve as a guidepost, and imprimatur for not only what the European Union is capable of, but also, so much more which it is capable of transcending to.

Article 107 which enumerates the specificity of aid for E.U. countries is an integral part of the TEU. It’s whole is part of the broader so-called Standard Procedure Clauses which make up the bulk of the E.U.’s governing powers and authorities. This clause is integral to any decision making in the European Union, as elaborated upon earlier in my essay. The European Union is a major decision maker not only with regards to the continent of Europe, but also as concerns the global reach, and global regard which Europe, and the E.U. see within themselves. While the most troubling crisis of the E.U. experiment have receded, there is still yet more to be done. And while there remains E.U.-United States friction over the overall direction of the E.U. this much is true, that the E.U. is a force for change, and good in the World, and the stated goals and objectives of this nascent organization represent some of the most noble, and highest attainments of mankind, and humanity that we have ever witnessed.

          

Domestic Affairs, Domestic Policy, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Political Theory

Treatise of BRICS and Bond Yields for United States Dollar Denominated Debt

Leave a comment

Though there is fragmentation in the Bond markets. Even including its regulation. There is yet still need for further Policy Instrument implementation. Indeed, Yesha Yadav’s description of this paradigm is apt when he says: “The rulebook for Treasuries is sparse, lacking basic guardrails common to other markets. Without effective rules and institutional coop­eration, regulators are ill-equipped to develop a taxonomy of risks and strategies to mitigate them[1]”. The introduction of Public Investment Acts, such as those pursuant to the United States Securities Act of 1933, has withstood Judicial Review. Even as late as 2020, such as in the United States Supreme Court Case Liu v. Securities and Exchange Commission[2], 2020. The United States Securities Act of 1933 is essential in that “It requires every offer or sale of securities that uses the means and Instrumentalities of interstate commerce to be registered with the SEC pursuant to the 1933 Act, unless an exemption from registration exists under the law.”[3]

 This Public, and Private Law strategy, has been upheld by the course of time, and the success of our modern market-based systems of exchange. This treatise however, is not a prelude to any sort of significant structural reforms to the current system. But instead, is an attempt to ameliorate the treasury markets, for significant structural gain, through a Policy of incrementalism, and the introduction of substantive Public Investment Law, to our current system of Fiscal, and Monetary management. Thus, the introduction of a substantive Public Investment Law, to be passed with Congressional approval, which will better the Private Laws which govern the efficient functioning of Monetary Policy, as well as Fiscal Policy, in the United States Government.

The current COVID crisis, has precipitated a new and unique situation in the United States Bond Markets. The loosening of Interest Rates by the Federal Reserve, had the implicit effect of lowering Bond Prices, and increasing Yields to Maturity. This has played itself out in the United States Bond Markets as expected. Though, now analyst and commentators are fretting about what the increase in Real Bond Rates means for the overall health of the Economy. However, the health of the Bond Markets, in no way implies the deterioration of the health of the overall Financial Markets, both here in the US domestically, as well as internationally. On the contrary, the health in the Bond Markets, and the explicit loosening of Interest Rates, which had the added effect of increasing inflationary pressures. Has instead led to an increase not only in inflation overall in the Economy, but also the increase in value, in Equities, and Securities, in the Financial Markets. This is not to say that Bond Yields would deteriorate with these sideways pressures (As they often would in the circumstances of an Ordinary Bull Market). However, with the combination of healthy Economic Outlook, multiplied by strong and resilient Financial Markets, this has led to an unexpected increase in the Yield-to-Maturity of Bond Assets, along with a loosening of Bond Durations, and Convexities. These seemingly diametrically opposed phenomena, the increase of returns on Equities, along with an increase in Bond Yields, is in fact a further maturation of the already strong Bull Market which we have experienced over the last 12 years.

Bond Reinvestment Coupons, or BRICS, can play a valuable role in the overall health of the Economy both now, and in future Bull Markets. Below, is how I envision that they would work.

Their artifice is quite simple requiring only a slight Policy rethink by both the Federal Reserve, as well as the Treasury Department in their implementation. They work, based on the premise of Discounted Savings which accrue from the redemption of Bond Reinvestment Coupons for Dollar Denominated Treasuries, which usually occurs on a Semi-Annual Basis. The main crux of the Instrument would allow for these Coupon Redemptions to be Reinvested into the overall value, and therefore Yields of these Dollar-Denominated Bond Assets. This foregoing of Coupon Redemption, or Bond Reinvestment, would allow for an increase in both the Yield-to-Maturity of the Treasury Product, as well as the Duration, and overall value of any mature Treasury Product redeemed. This Instrument, the Bond Reinvestment Coupon, would be variable, meaning that the ultimate issuer of its availability would be the Treasury Department, as well as the Governing Heads of the Federal Reserve System. What this new Instrument means for Policy in the short term, is that we can expect an increase in Yields generated by Bond Reinvestment. In the long term this means additional measures which can be used, an order to control inflationary pressures from Monetary authorities, as well as Fiscal Agencies. It also means that the Federal Reserve, and the Monetary authorities, will have one more emergency powers Policy tool at their disposal, if need be. The introduction of such an Instrument may in fact allow for the maturation of the Federal Reserve’s so-called Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS for short, Instrument. What this means is that we can expect for the Treasury, as well as the Federal Reserve to play a more substantive role in the affairs of Monetary Policy, and Monetary Policy coordination. This coordination of Policy would presumably be overseen by the stakeholders which usually are a part of the Decision-Making Process. This Instrument, BRICS, which would take effect immediately, would require prior approval by the United States Congress, via a bill which would enumerate its powers, which would then delegate these powers to the aforementioned Fiscal, and Monetary Policy making Apparatuses, eventually becoming law. The proposed name for this law would be the Bond Reinvestment Act of 2023.   

So, then the most recent correction that we just experienced World Wide, due to the COVID virus, has been perceived by Financial Markets, as only a temporary downturn, with Bond Markets, especially here in the United States, viewing these phenomena, as a strength, rather than a weakness. And if the added effect of a Policy of Selective Bond Reinvestment Coupons (BRICS) takes shape, I expect for Real Bond Maturity Yields to continue to increase, as the US Economy recovers, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bond Yield patterns of previous Bull Markets begin to take hold with 10 year, and 30-year Bond Spreads returning to pre 2008 Financial Crisis Levels. With Dollar Valuation surpassing pre-2008 levels, and trending towards 1990’s era Dollar-Yen Swaps. With increased value found in International Markets, and Exporting of Dollar Denominated Services, and Assets.

[1] The Failed Regulation of U.S. Treasury Markets, Columbia Law Review Vol. 121 No. 4, Yesha Yadav, https://www.columbialawreview.org/content/the-failed-regulation-of-u-s-treasury-markets/, Accessed On: 08/17/2021  

[2] Liu v. Securities and Exchange Commission was a case which upheld the disgorgement clauses which were pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933. A legal precedent which has been upheld since at least the era of the great depression. For more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liu_v._Securities_and_Exchange_Commission

[3] Securities Act of 1933, Wikipedia.org, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities_Act_of_1933, Accessed On: 08/17/2021