Category Archives: African Affairs

Papers on Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab, and the broader African continent, as well as diaspora.

African Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs

Almost Doesn’t Count

Leave a comment

The following is a repost of an article that I wrote in October 2006,

after reading an article by Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker,

about Donald Rumsfeld and his designs on the military.

 

Almost Doesn’t Count

Kevin Miller

It turns out the outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld who Many say that they have been wrong about reforming the Army. For you see where he had requested rapid response special forces paramilitary units. The only difference with what Rumsfeld wanted and the reality of the situation is that the CIA has them so perhaps one of the very first mistakes for Bush ministration may have been not naming Rumsfeld to the CIA post back in 2000 which had been expected.

The real tragedy is for the Army which is now ill-prepared to deal with the challenges that it may be confronting in the 21st century as well as the CIA. Rumsfeld along with the officers he brought out of retirement began to cut programs they deemed not worthy of the Army of the 21st century such as the millions in funding for the self mobile howitzers, and the billions in funding for the Comanche helicopter system.

What should have been done in terms of upgrading the military into the 21st century is that they should have more rapid response special forces paramilitary units in the CIA and have them be the cream of the crop from the rest of the military. that way they can fight the asymmetric wars of the future while the rest of the military can engage in the more conventional wars it is also important to note that the Director of National Intelligence should have complete command and control over the rapid response special forces paramilitary units.

Rumsfeld was close to fulfilling his dream of rapid response military but just like the Iraq war almost doesn’t count.

African Affairs, East Asian Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Russian Affairs

In Defense of John Brennan

Leave a comment

In the coming weeks and months the CIA will be critiqued by the U.S. public writ large over a report detailing the enhanced interrogation techniques that the Bush Administration used to glean information from detainees at not only Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, but also at secret black sites via extraordinary renditions where the persons were then detained and tortured by foreign governments at the behest of the U.S. government. There will also be, in the coming months, extraordinary attention given to a new issue for the agency. Namely the eavesdropping on Senate Intelligence Committee computers allegedly an order to detail potential misappropriations of the data stored on those computers for use outside of the senate. The congress is mad on both sides of the aisle and is demanding accountability: Specifically the resignation of Director John Brennan, and the firing and possible legal repercussions for the employees that allegedly committed these acts. And while I cannot vouch for the wherewithal of people that I don’t know (i.e. the CIA employees) I can take a critical look at John Brennan’s tenure in both the White House, and the agency and without a doubt can say that he’s the right man to lead the agency at this perilous time.

Why? Well first of all according to reports though John Brennan worked at the agency in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks he was kept out of the loop on the important torture memo details which the senate report details and which will be released in the coming weeks. This makes him not culpable for any and all actions others might have taken in such a highly compartmentalized environment.

Secondly he was with the President during the momentous occasion of the killing of Osama Bin Laden in Abbotabad, Pakistan. This makes him somewhat of a hero in the halls of the agency since he was one of the President’s point men on this occasion. So then sacking him at a time where it seems like the Middle East is losing its grip on peace and security, and in a world where the Russians will shoot down airliners packed with civilians it’s times like these more than ever that we need a strong leader to help navigate these tough and perilous waters. Sacking the Director of Central Intelligence now would deplete the morale of the agency as it would lose one of its top billings.

Third most the Idea for an Inspector General (IG) to investigate the computer hacking at the senate offices was completely John Brennan’s idea. And though he was vehement that no hacking occurred, and though we have yet to see the IG’s report it’s clear from the statements that he has made recently that indeed hacking did occur and that he probably didn’t know about it as he very publicly and very vehemently denied the idea that hacking was taking place. So then to somehow pin the blame on Director Brennan that he somehow orchestrated the breaking in is ludicrous and a red herring at best.

John Brennan is a career public servant who has served with honor and distinction at both the agency and the White House during crucial moments in our Nation’s history. His credentials are unimpeachable and his reputation as a hard driving team player who knows how to get things done is unrepentantly deserved. For those that are calling for his resignation I would say look only to the man’s service to know that you can trust him and for those looking for a sacrificial lamb I would remind them that we don’t usually throw the baby out with the bath water, particularly in such a hostile and volatile environment that we have experienced as of late.

African Affairs, East Asian Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Russian Affairs

Admission of Guilt in Post 9/11 Atmosphere

1 Comment

On Friday the President held a press conference and admitted past errors during the Bush years that he says, amounted to “torture”. This comes before the contents of a Senate report detailing the use of tactics including extraordinary renditions an order to undermine the possibility of additional attacks on the homeland and abroad. Though these acts in retrospect were malicious at best the president seems to be signaling that they were perhaps the measured steps that any administration would’ve taken given the circumstances. I can remember being at my girlfriends house in Tampa and her telling me that “things have changed Kevin” when I asked her to elaborate all she could say was that “she didn’t know” all she knew was that “things have changed”. It’s not that I don’t agree with the steps that were taken during that fateful time; I just wish that they could have been done with less discreet protocol. I know that many will say that we didn’t know who was enemy and who was friend but I can assure you that my girlfriend who comes from a military family was not the enemy.

And it’s not that I hold any sort of resentment for what happened, rather the opposite I’m grateful that I rose to the occasion for my country. I just wish that, as Pollyannaish as it may sound go back to the days before 9/11.

The blood and treasure in the Middle East that was expended to kill one mad man and remove another from power permanently will be debated for many decades and centuries to come. But as for this Republican I’m quite content with the record of the previous administration and if asked to do it all over again would gladly go back down that rabbits hole and all it entails an order to do justice for all those that were killed on that fateful day in New York City where in an instant my childhood was over as well as the lives of nearly three thousand innocent individuals.

If a nation does not learn from the mistakes of the previous generations it will be doomed to repeat them.

African Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs

African Leaders Conference: Doha Reconsidered

Leave a comment

With the President meeting with African leaders this week I thought it would good to write once again(Doha Development Agenda: The Time is Now) why the Doha round is exceptionally important to the region and how that can be incorporated into the wider world. The Doha Development Agenda (DDA) is a multilateral trade regime which once implemented will free many developing nations from tariff ridden import-export policies and instead replace them with a free trade regime that will allow for countries as diverse as Kenya, Qatar, and Malaysia to trade with one another regardless of former barriers to trade which impeded prosperity.

The Doha agreement is of special importance to Africa as many countries rely on tariffs as a main source of revenue for the state. However with Doha implemented these states would no longer receive monies from tariffs but instead would derive most of their state revenue from taxable commerce from the businesses which would be created by freeing up trade. The Blair Commission on Africa has indicated through their own research that “Raising Africa’s share of world trade from 2% to 3% would provide export revenues of $70 billion, nearly three times the amount that sub-Saharan Africa receives from global aid donors.” This is not a small amount of revenue generated for these countries, and with Africa set to be the bread basket of the world, this trade deal figures prominently for Africa.

To see the possible success for Africa one need look no further than the United States. In the 1930’s the Republican Party was one made up mostly of isolationist. However once high tariff laws like Smoot-Hawley were repealed the United States began to come out of the depression and after World War 2 the United States stood alone as far and away the richest most powerful country on the face of the Earth. It’s no wonder then that the World Trade Organization (WTO) labels the loosening of free trade policies as one of the number one factors for how well a country will grow in the future. No wonder the Bush administration tried though to no avail to get DDA ratified on several occasions.

But it’s not too late with the world’s eyes on Washington D.C. this week as over fifty African leaders converge on the city it will be important to see just how committed the Administration is to creating new opportunities on the continent and fostering growth for the near and long term.

African Affairs, East Asian Affairs, Foreign Policy, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Russian Affairs

Bin Ladenism: the Kidnapping of Cameroonian Leaders Wife and what this means for Geo-Political Paradigm

1 Comment

The state of play in current political paradigms has shifted dramatically when speaking about Geo-Politics and national security. Recently it was announced that the Cameroonian vice Prime Minister’s wife had been kidnapped by Boko Haram. this is a return to old world order Geo-Political climate where for instance in the 80’s impoverished Mafioso’s in Italy would kidnap rich Italian and foreign nationals and demand a ransom payment for their safe return. Or when Jet liners were routinely hijacked an order to demand ransom or cause political chaos.This is a byproduct of the Bin Ladenism of terrorist acts as well as the pervasive Russian influence in conflicts around the world via arm sales and military training.

 

One way to define Bin Ladenism is to take the attacks of 9/11 for example. For you see by attacking the U.S. homeland in such a spectacular fashion the bar then became raised for more and more spectacular ways of harming the U.S. and its allies. Think 3/11 in Spain, the attempted shoe and underwear bombers and so on and so forth. Since the death of Bin Laden and with the rise of even more radical strains of Islam (if that’s possible) the world has seen terrorist organizations become influence peddlers in the form of cold hard cash. This makes since, since by having large cash reserves you can declare yourselves to be the true defenders of Jihad, and Islamic fundamentalism. This is evident in recent Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s brash video of earlier this year, ISIS fighters declaring an Islamic state, and Boko Haram kidnapping girls and selling them into slavery.

 

This odd turn of events should not go unnoticed. We should be extra vigilant in this new paradigm with our diplomats and senior officials in the government. But we should also seek to make sure that influential individuals in the private sector are protected from kidnapping or worse when flying overseas to potentially hazardous locales. This should come in the form of travel alerts and overseas embassy closings if and when we suspect that a terrorist group may be plotting harm to any overseas westerners.

 

African Affairs, East Asian Affairs, Foreign Policy, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Russian Affairs

Isolationism and Perceived Malignant Events

Leave a comment

As countries become more isolationist a segment of the population also becomes more reactionary this leads to a segment of the population within the party with reactionary tendencies (Republicans, Conservatives, Tories etc.) to have the most profound solution to the problem. This however is only the case if the isolationist party (Democrats) is the one to initiate the preponderance of said tendencies and perpetuates said tendencies due to a perceived malignant event  (9/11, coup d’et tat attempt or success, war, assassination, etc.)  For the times which forces said isolationist party to initiate said tendencies. The solution which is said to be profound and held by a right of center faction is often neglected and not realized until one or more perceived malignant events initiate’s latent isolationist tendencies in the now metastasizing wing of the isolationist party.

Perceived events are events which based on the universally known facts and preponderance of evidence presented to the public by the media and the administration before said perceived malignant event leads to said latent isolationist tendencies to become nascent. After becoming nascent a latent diametrically opposed opinion in said reactionary party becomes nascent as well (if it has not metastasized already.) The right of centers profound solution is only realized though if the isolationist party is sovereign at the time. The isolationist party’s latent isolationist tendencies can be expressed in many different ways after becoming paramount within the isolationist’s party. There are exceptions to the profound solution being realized when isolationist party is sovereign at the time.

Some of these exceptions are mitigated by the circumstances of change surrounding the isolationist party leader (i.e.  POTUS, DNC chairman, ) as well as the circumstances of change surrounding the isolationist party. And then how each one is affected separately, and then as a whole once coming together. After coming together and exhorting a policy with a combination of rhetoric and fact, then coupled with the appearance of non-zero sums (0<=) we are able to compute relatively the subjunctive (thesis). These exceptions are only possible when first all non-zero sums are computed through millers megalomaniacal theorem (R +X+Y+Z). Millers megalomaniacal theorem is to not confuse you with a lot of theory an equation found in the Bible and backed up by other sacred text which allows the user if adjusted in a stochastic sense using the good sense that the Bible teaches us that there is a way to compute what someone is most likely to do given the various factors that are present within the bible in terms of sin versus doing the right thing. These factors are where y is present or the chivalric modifier:

P(prophecy), M(ministry) T(teaching) ,E (exhorting), G (giving), F(faith), K(ministering), V(teaching), Q(exhortation), L(liberality, S(leading),U(mercy),D(diligence),C(cheerfulness), C2(love),H(joy),A(peace),E2(longsuffering),L2(kindness), M2(goodness), I(faithfulness),L3(gentleness),L4(self control),

R= 0<(subjunctive)+(subjunctive)=(subjunctive)+Z=R=R+X+Y+Z

Then in turn computing the x or hubris modifier:

H(hypocrisy),L5(adultery),L6(fornication),I2(uncleanness),M3(lewdness),L7(idolatry),L8(sorcery),L9(hatred),L10(contentions),L11(jealousy),L12(outbursts of wrath), K2(selfish ambitions) E2(dissensions),V2(heresies), I3(envy),N(murders),N2(drunkenness),E3(conceited) R(proud look), E4(a lying tongue), R2(hands that are quick to shed innocent blood), O(a heart that devises wicked plans),M4(feet that are swift in running to evil), E5 (a false witness that speaks lies), R3(one who sows discord among brethren, O2(sloth)

Once the modifiers have been computed it is at this point and this point and this point only are we able to compute a relatively computed subjunctive. The modifiers are presumed to be monotonic sequences which are set to have limits otherwise they would never be computed in the rest of the equation. So it has become imperative then that we should know what value to assign to the modifiers unfortunately we are not able to accurately get a candid picture if you will of the events so through some elementary stochastic equations that I’ve devised along the way from a very experimental stand point with the help of the macroeconomic literati community at Yale and the University of Michigan:

(Y) = t Y t ±1 (Y0,…,X t -1, yt, yt ±1,…)

(X) = t Xt ±1 (X0,…,Xt -1, Xt, Xt ±1,…)

R= t Y t ±1 (Y0,…,X t -1, yt, yt ±1,…)

Now you may say to yourself that these equations from a very rudimentary view seem to be not conforming to the idea that there needs to be an end to the equations since they are in fact monotonic sequences. This would be very observant of you and so it’s at this point that we compute using the Monte Carlo method which should allow us conclude the chain of events successfully and come to an accurate representation of the individual subjunctive in question. The scale that I’ve proposed for all variables within the modifiers is a simple 1 through 10 scale, this will allow for the most accurate answer I believe. It’s also important to note that t is a time modifier for the various portions for the equation since also include hedonic adaptation along with proving the Leontif utility function.

 

African Affairs, East Asian Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Russian Affairs

Indictment of Russian Recalcitrance and What to do About It

2 Comments

Since the early 2000’s an ascendant Russia has gone out of its way to make life harder for the United States anyway it knew how. The following is an indictment of the Russian federation and their leadership when it comes to their engagement with the world and how they have manipulated situation after situation to strengthen their own hand and leave in their wake death destruction and questions of why these things are being done by supposed “responsible partners”:

 

  • In the early 2000’s throughout to Col. Qaddafi’s ouster then President Vladimir Putin supplied small arms and ammunition to the Libyan dictator. He then in turn supplied these weapons to rebels in Sierra Leone and to Liberian dictator Charles Taylor during their respective civil wars; for conflict diamonds. These wars in turn killed and maimed millions and displaced millions more.

 

  • Vladimir Putin has been accused of assisting Victor Bout in his arms sales around the world which totaled in excess of $1 Billion. These arms later fueled tensions and wars in Kashmir, Thailand, armed the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and started wars in Central African Republic, and Congo among others.

 

  • Vladimir Putin has been accused of funneling monies and arms to the sons of Col. Qaddafi and fomenting terrorism in Nigeria, and Mali via Boko Haram, violence in Central African Republic, and South Sudan, Uganda, as well as the conflicts in the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Somaliland, and Kenya).

 

  • Vladimir Putin it has been proved supplied Russian made S-300 surface to air missiles to the Bashar al-Assad regime in which helped to further strengthen his hold on the country, and give him the confidence that he needed an order to gas his own people indiscriminately with Saran and VX nerve agents.

 

  • In the summer of 2008 Vladimir Putin gave the go ahead to his forces to invade another sovereign country (Georgia) an order to prevent them from moving closer to their western allies, In violation of international law.

 

  • Under his direct orders Vladimir Putin had Aleksander Litvenenko Poisoned, and killed him with Polonium 210, an irradiated substance in London, a case for which still nobody has been brought to justice.

 

  • Also under his direct orders Vladimir Putin Poisoned Victor Luschenko a Ukrainian former President while he was campaigning against the Kremlin’s wishes to become President. No one has been brought to justice for this crime against humanity either.

 

  • In July of 2014 a Malaysian Airliner that had departed Holland en route to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was shot down by Russian backed Ukrainian Dissidents over eastern Ukraine killing all 298 on board.

 

When taken as a whole these actions prove that Vladimir Putin poses a grave risk to the international community and these actions must be taken as the way that new Russia acts. And since we’re dealing with a new potent and growing threat then it must be contained, indeed isolated as part of a larger vision to secure the international community against international terrorist like the Russians. That is why the only actions which make sense at this point are to declare Russia as an international sponsor of terrorism. And also to work with the UN to suspend at least temporarily if not permanently the Russian Federations Permanent seat with veto powers on the U.N. Security Council.

African Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: An Obituary

Leave a comment

As I looked at the recent al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) propaganda tape I (like most of the civilized world) could not help but question the inane insanity of the enemy that we seem to find ourselves dealing with. And though I’m no expert on AQAP by any means whatsoever I still was able (like most of us) to feel the shift in paradigm that occurred in the months and years immediately following Osama bin Laden’s death (OBL). OBL was the unabashedly, unquestioned head of a organization that was more top down and structured than any of us in the west could’ve imagined. So when I saw video of al Qaeda’s second in command, Nasir al-Wuhayshi talking and hugging the al Qaeda devoted I couldn’t help but begin to compare the two. First of all if there’s anything analyst have learned during the intermittent time between OBL’s death and the apparent crowning of an al Qaeda crown prince it’s that this top down organization is not a hydra that will multiply the more we try to disassemble it. Not only can it be disassembled but it can be assembled permanently. And although Al Qaeda core has inspired many spin off groups (al-Shabaab) and lone wolves (think the 2013 Boston marathon bombings), these tactics or organizations have their drawbacks too.

When OBL died he took with him the expertise and wherewithal of a hardened battlefield soldier. He also took with him the propensity to learn from the enemy and react accordingly. Hence the lack of focus in Al-Qaeda core insomuch as what operations should be carried out, what battlefields are worthy of spilt blood, etc. Now that the Al Qaeda spin off groups have populated the world stage and have been relatively contained. It has become somewhat vogue to assume that these groups will (including AQAP) once decapitated, will simply persist without proper leadership. Do not be fooled by this inference. In fact if anything groups in Arabia, and Africa are led by strongmen who control tightly managed, top down organizations that have nebulous at best associations with al-Qaeda core and who usually have the most money out of all of the purveyors surrounding them. In other words once the strongman has been killed off the core of the terrorist group usually fractures permanently into disparate collectives that usually never see the world stage again; if they ever did in the first place. Two: fighting insurgent groups such as the LRA, Boko Haram, and al-Shabaab in Africa here and now is a good thing. its good for our allies in the region(s) it’s good for the United States, and if it’s good for the United States it’s usually good for the rest of the world. The idea that AQAP can exist without money or any of the other sinews of war is a ridiculous argument on its face. That is not to say that we should not treat them as the existential threat that they are, but we should take care to think smartly about what it is were dealing with. Too often just like LRA, just like Al-Shabaab were dealing with a moneyed man who has the where withal, but more than that the organizational charisma necessary to rally the requisite amount of followers to their cause. I would posit that this too is true for AQAP and their backers, once the money is drained from an organization like this, that organization ceases to be a potent factor. This is proof that there is no transnational cabal that connects all the guerilla insurgent groups in Africa (or Asia for that matter) to one another or at times even to outside proprietors.

Al-Wuhayshi may be a character that attempts to emulate the charisma of an OBL but that doesn’t mean that his plans will come to fruition. And though he’s not the only one with money in the organization what will happen then when he becomes AQAP’s sole benefactor. Or what if he should perish in a drone strike; AQAP would then become just another marginalized terrorist group with ties to Africa. Like I said earlier I don’t know a lot about AQAP but the sooner al-Wuhayshi is wiped off the face of the earth the better, and good riddance.

African Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs

Doha Development Agenda: The Time is Now

1 Comment

Webster’s defines the Doha Development Agenda as a “round of trade talks aimed at helping developing countries whose exportable goods are heavily concentrated among agricultural products develop their international trade.” The Doha Development Agenda is a trade agreement that could revolutionize the way the world works as we know it. The Doha round or DDA is a trade liberalization agreement that once passed will provide an open and free market for the agricultural products of developing nations. The Doha Development Agenda (DDA) is a complex trade agreement that needs to be passed because it will allow for developing countries to trade with not only each other, but developed countries as well in a free trade zone. The DDA is a trade liberalization round that if passed will allow for freer trade throughout the WTO. The Doha Development Agenda is beneficial for the countries involved, and the world as well. The WTO is comprised of 150 different countries across 6 continents. The United States and emerging markets such as China have benefited from WTO membership.

NAFTA came into effect in January of 1994 bringing freer trade throughout the region. And Mexican and American relations have improved since the inception of NAFTA. U.S. annual incomes are $1 trillion higher, or $9,000 per household, due to trade liberalization since 1945 The World Trade Organization was founded in 1947.Today with its 150 members the WTO covers all regions of the world looking to expand by two dozen other countries as they seek to join. NAFTA is an increasingly powerful trading bloc. NAFTA has contributed proportionally to the per capita GDP’s of the trade bloc members as well as the GDP’s of the countries that they trade with. According to the WTO website “U.S. exports of services have doubled over the past 12 years, generating a $72 billion surplus in 2006 on exports of $414 billion.” Together the NAFTA countries are the largest trading bloc in the entire world.

Free Market reforms affect the world throughout not just the participating countries.  World trade fell by 70 percent in the early 1930s; throwing tens of millions out of work, deepening the Great Depression, and fuelling the political tensions that helped give rise to World War II. Before the WTO high tariff laws were passed like the Smoot-Hawley which restricted trade and led to the polarized world of World War II. Today one in three acres in the U.S. is planted for export. Since the 1990s, freer trade has helped raise U.S. national economic output by nearly 50 percent, and, over the same period, the U.S. economy added nearly 20 million jobs

Trade barriers in the developing world are substantial so removing them could have a cumulative effect.  This is why Doha needs to be ratified immediately. According to the WTO website “Dismantling government barriers to trade allows individuals access to the world’s supermarket for food, clothing, and other manufactured goods…”, And furthermore, “Empirically, expanded trade has been essential to economic growth and wealth for both developed and developing countries.” This is especially true for African countries, as well as South East Asian countries. By allowing these countries to trade without tariffs inhibiting their growth between one another, this will allow for the reestablishment of the Silk Road. With no tariffs and a high volume of durable goods and commodities being traded that means that critical issues like Africa’s lack of affordable and consistent power would become moot points. While at the same time allowing for more money to flow freely between the two continents giving much needed development assistance to Africa (which happens to be the least developed inhabitable continent in the world). In fact Tony Blair’s Blair Commission on Africa says that “Raising Africa’s share of world trade from 2% to 3% would provide export revenues of $70 billion, nearly three times the amount that sub-Saharan Africa receives from global aid donors.” By convincing African countries to remove their tariffs, there would be a boom in much needed export revenue in Africa on a scale that no aid program has provided thus far.

At issue for the majority of the African countries in question is the fact that their income is mostly derived from tariffs. This makes a economic as well as psychological barrier to preventing these countries from agreeing to the DDA. This is probably the most crucial issue that hasn’t been addressed by the western countries like the U.S. that are adamant about the DDA becoming a reality. One solution is that perhaps by partially subsidizing the sub-Saharan African countries that use these tariffs for revenue, with aid, we would be able to convince them to perhaps adopt the DDA protocols fully without exception.

By allowing for trade barriers such as tariffs to be abolished in the countries that need it the most is what Doha is all about Doha is a trade agreement that once ratified will allow for greater opportunities to those countries that have the greatest to gain. African, Middle Eastern, and South East Asian countries are all regions that would benefit from the Doha Development Agenda to become international law and I urge them to sign onto the agreement immediately.