Category Archives: Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs

This section is devoted to timely articles about the affairs of Near East Asia and South Asia

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Iranian Nuclear Ambitions (2003-2024)

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Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. For the next 15 years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%. Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time.[1] A nuclear weapon uses a fissile material to cause a nuclear chain reaction. The most commonly used materials have been uranium 235 (U-235) and plutonium 239 (Pu-239). Both uranium 233 (U-233) and reactor-grade plutonium have also been used.[2][3][4]

With Separative Work Units Estimated to begin production of fissile material at about 35 SWU, the estimated amount of fissile material needed to produce one bomb is estimated to be about 30 kilograms, with perfect centrifuge production of such fissile material accomplished after the use of about 50,000 unique centrifuges.[5][6] This is thought to precipitate from the production of crude IR-1 centrifuges which have a Uranium Produced to Centrifuge Use Ratio of 0.0867% (Uranium: Centrifuge Ratio).[7] This is a certain disadvantage for any country which hopes to produce an indigenous supply of fissile material, for any illicit nuclear program, and its activities. This means that an order to produce the previously estimated Separative Work Units needed to attain 30 Kilograms of Low Enriched Uranium (LEU), the program in question would have to expend an inordinate number of centrifuges of the IR-1 grade, which would add up to something of the order of magnitude of at least 122,268,924 Centrifuges, again of the IR-1 generation, which is the crudest workable generation of centrifuges available.

It’s estimated that the Islamic Republic of Iran has about 19,500 of these installed in a cascading assay at any one time.[8] Numbers like these continue for some time when talking about the Uranium to Centrifuge Ratio for less crude centrifuge devices, IR-2, .15937%, topping out at 33,270,455 IR-2 Centrifuges alone an order to produce enough Uranium for one bomb (30 Kgs). IR-3, a respectable centrifuge technology that requires 9,053,185 to produce the same amount of fissile material, giving it a Uranium to Centrifuge Cannibalization Ratio of 0.292843%.

Amongst these lesser centrifuge technologies, it is presumed from testimony from inspectors, and reports from the IAEA, as well as intelligence agencies, that the maximum number of Centrifuges which can be installed at any one time is north of 15,000 per assay, for these centrifuge technologies alone.

This would explain the IR-1 Assay which has over 15,000 centrifuges installed (19,500).[9] 

While IR-4 has a Uranium to Centrifuge Ratio of 0.538099% Cannibalized, meaning that the number of centrifuges needed to produce the requisite amount of LEU fissile material drops considerably to 2,463,451. However, it’s thought that the Iranians only have 5,000 of the more high-tech IR-4 in existence.

But this number is up for discussion and it here posited by me, that the number of centrifuges which are currently put into production by Iran, number at least 10,000 total, with IR-3 being the most plentiful of them all. This means that by most estimates 7,800 may be the maximum declared allotment by the Ayatollah and his regime, but the figure varies accordingly due to the size of the program, meaning suspected undeclared facilities, and the scope and nature of the program as well.[10] After all, it was Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi Fedayeen, who were suspected of concealing what was in fact a defunct Nuclear Weapons Program, on trailers which were supposedly on mobile platforms throughout the desert in 2003.[11]

The number of centrifuges thought to be acquired by Iran, and their efficiency, therefore, begin to deviate from each other dramatically, after this. With highly advanced IR-5, and IR-6 Centrifuges collapsing to no greater than 1,000 for the foreseeable future, after implementation of the JCPOA, and even yet still Cannibalized Yields accelerating to only 1.8% with Centrifuges, and Centrifuges used, numbering in the hundreds of thousands.

The production of these centrifuges, and their capabilities was summed up in Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran, a 2019 book by Robert S. Litwak, from the Woodrow Wilson Center at Princeton University which sums up the state of the program, and the issues succinctly:

“Centrifuges are essential equipment for uranium enrichment, the multistage industrial process in which natural uranium is converted into special material capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction. Natural uranium occurs in two forms—U-238, making up 99 percent of the element, and the lighter U-235, accounting for less than 1 percent. But the latter is a fissionable isotope that emits energy when split. Uranium ore is crushed into a powder, refined, and then reconstituted into a solid form, known as “yellowcake.” The yellowcake is then superheated and transformed into a Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran: gas, uranium hexafluoride (UF6). That gas is passed through a centrifuge and spun at high speed, with the U-238 drawn to the periphery and extracted, while the lighter U-235 clusters in the center and is collected. The collected U-235 material is passed through a series of centrifuges, known as a cascade, with each successive pass-through increasing the percentage of U-235. Uranium for a nuclear reactor should be enriched to contain approximately 3 percent uranium-235, whereas weapons-grade uranium should ideally contain at least 90 percent. Iran developed indigenous facilities to support each phase of the uranium enrichment process: two uranium ore mines, whose reserves could produce 250-300 nuclear weapons, according to U.S. intelligence; a yellowcake production facility; a facility for Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz (aerial view) From Transformational to Transactional Diplomacy converting yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas in Esfahan; and two enrichment sites, Natantz and Fordow, with 19,000 centrifuges, of which some 10,000 were operational. They were predominantly the first-generation IR-1 model, although Iran had begun installing the more sophisticated IR-2 model, which is more reliable and estimated to have six times the output of IR1s. The industrial-scale Natanz site, located 200 miles south of Tehran, could potentially house 50,000 centrifuges. The Fordow enrichment site near Qom is too small to be Economically rational as part of a civil nuclear program and is invulnerable to a military strike because it is deeply buried. Those attributes, as well as its location on a Revolutionary Guard base, aroused concern that its intended purpose was to receive low-enriched uranium produced at Natanz for further enrichment to weapons-grade material.”[12]

Figure 10 Fick’s Equation, Courtesy of National Research Nuclear University (Russia), Nuclear Reactor Physics Basics, Yury Volkov (Instructor), Coursera.org, Accessed On: 2/25/2024

This extant, which was provided by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Public Policy, gives a clear and concise explanation of the basis for ongoing nuclear negotiations, which have currently reached an impasse, as of June 2021.

Add to that a resourceful, and diligent case study of the Ayatollah’s finances in Iran. And it’s estimated that he personally has accumulated over $US 350 Billion Dollars, in personal wealth, over the course of time since the signing of the JCPOA agreement, and the wars in both Syria, Yemen, as well as Gaza. This summation, the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Public Policy Extant, however, does not include the existence of undeclared sites, which may be yet smaller in scope, but could number in the tens or more. The exclusionary nature of the Iranian Nuclear Program, along with its undeclared assets, and facilities, is one of the historical hallmarks of covert nuclear programs around the world, and is what makes it so dangerous. It should be noted however that the main conduits of the Nuclear Program, the Uranium and Plutonium Milling Mines outside of the processing facilities, including Gchine, and Saghand, as per News reports, are no longer functioning, owing to the laborious processes the Iranians have gone through to produce Nuclear Fissile Materials, and the limited capabilities which they have been able to covertly develop, after its acquisition.[13] If true, this revelation should be of the utmost of issues which the Americans, and the other P5+1 interlocutors can use to leverage Iranian compliance with their nuclear program. As the lack of raw fissionable material, negates the programs efficacy for the purposes of exploiting current technologies for the development of Nuclear Fission Weapons. And the inclusion of sensitive monitoring equipment, such as cameras, and other positive scoring sensors, and devices, at these, and other mining, and milling technology sites, must be included in any further discussions of the renegotiation of the JCPOA, and its compliance regime.

Figure 11 CERN Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) Experiment at Light Hadron Collider #2, Cessy, France, Courtesy of the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN)

As for experimental centrifuges which Iran has under its command, the introduction of IR-6s, and IR-7’s was at first thought to completely transform the character and nature of the Iranian nuclear program, and the threat it poses. However, after initial analyses were conducted by western intelligence communities, using lasers pointed at the heat emanating from suspected nuclear sites, it was discovered that the Iranians are enriching at only a slightly more efficient level, and that the amount of these so-called experimental centrifuges must not number in less than 500 totals.

Nevertheless, when they are able to acquire these more advanced centrifuges, the Assay really only begin to decrease to so called super efficiencies at the IR-8 and above. That’s not to say that the amount of Enriched Uranium produced by these centrifuges is negligible, with Cannibalized Assays reported at 11.27%, and 20.71% Respectively, these technologies, should they ever fall into the Government of Iran’s Hands could precipitate another nuclear crisis.

And, while I suspect that the technology already exist. The added knowhow, such as Krytron Switching, and other light, and gas based, vaporous, diaphanous, vaporizing devices. Needed an order to perfect certain Nuclear Fission, and thus Weaponization technologies. I’ve concluded they may not have mastered the knowhow of.  

Figure 12 CERN Light Hadron Collider (b) (LHCb) ALICE Propulsion Experiments. (Image Courtesy of CERN)

Figure 13 CERN ALICE pPb Heavy Ion Collisions Experiments, Courtesy of the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN)

These numbers which are articulated in the above section on capabilities, do not negate the presence of current Iranian enrichment capabilities, indeed by the time the JCPOA negotiations began in 2015, it was already revealed by the Iranian side, that they possessed enough enriched Uranium to make at least five (5) nuclear weapons. The numbers on cannibalized arrays simply relate to the capabilities of their current centrifuge campaign for their Nuclear Weapons Program, and is indicative of the Iranian sides inability to progress past certain technological thresholds.       

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action

 

[2]  Holdren, John; Bunn, Matthew (1997). “Managing Military Uranium and Plutonium in the United States and the Former Soviet Union”. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment. 22: 403–496. doi: 10.1146/annurev.energy.22.1.403.

 

[3] Barnaby, Frank (5 March 2014). Barnaby; Holdstock, Douglas (eds.). Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Retrospect and Prospect. p. 25. ISBN 9781135209933

 

[4] Matthew; Holdren, John P. “Managing military uranium and plutonium in the United States and the Former Soviet Union” (PDF). pp. 403–409.

 

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separative_work_units

 

[6] “Explainer: How close is Iran to producing a nuclear bomb?”, Francois Murphy, Reuters.com, Found At: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-explainer/explainer-how-close-is-iran-to-producing-a-nuclear-bomb-idUSKBN2880NU

 

[7] This ratio is made by taking the amount of Uranium needed for feedstock and dividing it by the number of centrifuges used, an order to obtain 30 Kilograms of High Enriched Uranium. For actual numbers used see the Appendix.

 

[8] Explainer: How close is Iran to producing a nuclear bomb? François Murphy, Reuters.com, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-explainer/explainer-how-close-is-iran-to-producing-a-nuclear-bomb-idUSKBN2880NU

[9] Ibid.

 

[10] The Logic of Restoring Compliance With the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, Arms Control Association, Vol. 14, Issue 2, February 16th, 2022; Found At: https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2022-02/logic-restoring-compliance-2015-iran-nuclear-deal?emci=b29c911a-ad8e-ec11-a507-281878b83d8a&emdi=326f4403-378f-ec11-a507-281878b83d8a&ceid=15330559

 

[11] Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, with Addendums (Duelfer Report), Iraq Survey Group (ISG), Central Intelligence Agency, April 25th, 2005, found at: https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-DUELFERREPORT/, Accessed On: 02/16/2022

 

[12] Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran: From Transformational to Transactional Diplomacy, Pgs. 83-85, Robert S. Litwak, Princeton University Press, 2019

 

[13] Is Iran running out of yellowcake? By David Albright, Jacqueline Shire, and Paul Brannan, February 11, 2009, Institute for Science and International Security, Found At: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Iran_Yellowcake_11Feb2009.pdf, Accessed: 06/06/2021

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Introduction: Beyond Globalization

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white smoke coming out from a building
Photo by Marcin Jozwiak on Pexels.com

Globalization, a relatively recent economic phenomena, and norm, at least in its most recent incarnation. Has brought wealth, prosperity, and diversity to billions of individuals worldwide. In the following pages, I try to clarify the effects of Globalization, and its normative successes, as well as failures. I will do this through the lens of a World which has been greatly affected by the COVID-19 crisis, and the resultant regime. And, I will attempt to perceive the future of Globalization. One in which the world is no longer ravaged by famine, plague, and Political disorder. And, one in which the United States, partners with its allies, to create better societies, throughout the World, while at the same time, taking account of the usury, and unobligated expenses, which the worlds remaining dictatorships have been party to.

This appraisal includes Russia, and its wars not only in Ukraine, but Syria as well. And, while the addition of credit extended, and credit used, has propelled dictatorial regimes, such as Iran, North Korea, and Russia, into higher, more prosperous, and more useful credit, and asset classes. Bringing into question the rules, and obligations of the established Global World Order, led by the United States. These credit bubbles, which have instead become a part of the international investment positions of these countries. Has led many millions of the former world’s poor, into levels of attainment, and wealth, never before seen by a great many of them.

And, while these credit snafus, have ultimately only legitimated, and benefitted the regimes in question. The adjoining information is useful, an order to better allow the perception of these misdeeds, as well as the sheer magnitude which they hold in their size, scope, and weight, as failed, or formerly failing nation states. And how that may apply to future conflicts, or even transboundary disputes, which may arise during any given circumstance. Particular attention is paid to the solvency of the European Union, and the United States, as well. 

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China and the World: Post COVID-19 and Beyond

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To conclude, the Chinese, mainland’s CCP Government, and its excellent use of the COVID-19 pandemic, an order to perpetuate its standing amongst the Chinese, people, while cherry-picking amongst the United States, and its allies, effectively picking winners, and losers, has become the lost story of our times.

The bellicosity which the Chinese socialist republic has demonstrated, both at home domestically, and economically, as well as in the foreign sphere, with countries such as Myanmar, and Taiwan, have only exacerbated the United States, nascent Great Game, Geo-Political Politics, which have begun to override, and overrule much of United States domestic political, and foreign policy priorities. Especially as relates to COVID-19.

The skillful use, of both legitimate international organizations, such as the World Health Organization, as well as the United Nations, an order to “Build a Vaccine Great Wall”, to both vaccinate, and terrify individual western countries, with the added threat of World Trade Organization tariffs, and fees, for goods, and services coming from China.

[1] While, simultaneously sidelining much of the dissent, and threat of dissent which emanated from within the country, while appeasing those whom were sidelined, yet were reluctant to voice an opinion of opposition to the mainland, and its common cause.

[2] While still being able to manipulate the United States, and its allies, with the concluding touches on the Nile River Dam project.

[3] The renegotiation of trade ties with the United States, and WTO contracts, and 21st century International Intellectual Property Law conferences, which were held almost exclusively in China, and on Chinese terms of endearment, without the explicit participation of any one major United States organ in attendance.

[4] The as yet unconfirmed secret deployment of the Chinese Strategic Defense Initiative, Missile Defense System, or Dragon Shield.

[5] The Chinese People’s Republic’s successful landings on the Moon of at least two orbiting Space Launch Vehicles (SLV’s).

[6] As well as, the secret, and newly verifiable expansion, of the Chinese Militaries secret expansion, of their Strategic Nuclear assets.

[7][8] The adjoining of the Chinese People’s 14th National Congress, with the North Korean 75th anniversary of the People’s Congress.

[9][10] As well as the North Korean’s mysterious lack of any overt signs of the COVID-19 pandemics effects on its economy.

[11] The deployment of a Chinese spying outpost in Cuba, which is less than 90 miles from Florida, and the United States Mainland.

[12] Along with the launching of over 100 missiles to date, total, in the year 2022-2023.

[13] Plus, the mysterious death rumors of the younger grandson of General Mao Tse-tung, in North Korea, towards the beginning of the convening 13th People’s Congress, and the communist cult of mythology undertones, which intermingled with the two events.

[14] And it becomes clear that China has indeed been very productive, and very busy, since the onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This startling turn of events, the maturation, and muscularization of the Chinese People’s Economic, and Military prowess, has only now begun to fully form itself out, taking shape, just as the economic, and material political woes, of Europe, begin to have seemingly take hold.

[15] Emmanuel Macron’s April 2023, trip to China, which has sought to assuage much of Europe’s fears, of a multi-polar dominated world.

[16] And the end of American Hegemony. Has on par met the tenacity of the ascendant Chinese, for now. However, if the wars in Ukraine, and in the Middle East, along with the nascent saber rattling by China, against its erstwhile rebellious neighbors, in Taiwan, continue.

[17] The United States, and Europe, may have to confront not only the declining, yet still animated Russian Republic. But, also, an as yet uncontested, and newly militarily dominant Chinese People’s Republic. Add to that the newly nascent domestic political woes of the United States, and its lack of resolve militarily, in dealing with an as yet uncontested Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.

[18] And the bombing of Israel by Lebanese Hizballah, militias, and ISIS, and the Assad regime, reenergized from their time on the battlefield.

[19] And it becomes clear that the United States, as well as its partners and allies, will have more than their hands full, over the coming decades, with the Chinese People’s Republic taking center stage.         

[1] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/202108/t20210806_9170557.html, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, of the Chinese People’s Republic of China, Accessed On: 4/6/2023

[2] https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/peng-shuai-china-disappeared-how-beijing-silences-critics, Cohen, Jerome, Council of Foreign Relations, November 23, 2021

[3] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/china-expands-its-influence-horn-africa-overlooks-dispute-over-nile-dam, Saied, Mohamed, Al-Monitor, March 29, 2022

[4] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-laws-explainer/explainer-china-changes-laws-in-trade-war-with-u-s-enforcement-a-concern-idUSKCN1SD18G, Reuters Staff, Explainer: China Changes Trade Laws with U.S., Enforcement a Concern, May 7th, 2019

[5] https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/china/china-anti-ballistic-missile-test-intl-hnk/index.html, Jessie, Yeung, China Claims Successful Anti-Ballistic Missile Interceptor Test, June 19th, 2022

[6] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chang-e-5-china-spacecraft-lands-moon/, Harwood, William, China Says Spacecraft Successfully Lands on Moon for Historic Sample Collection, December 1st, 2020,

[7] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/pentagon-sees-faster-chinese-nuclear-expansion, Pentagon Sees Faster Chinese Nuclear Expansion, Shannon, Bugos, Arms Control Association Magazine, December 2021

[8] https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/18/striking-asymmetries-nuclear-transitions-in-southern-asia-pub-87394, Striking Asymmetries: Nuclear Transitions in Southeast Asia, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 18th, 2022

[9] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202210/t20221018_10785042.html, 20th National Congress of Communist Party of China opens in Beijing, Xi Jinping delivers report to Congress on behalf of 19th CPC Central Committee, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, October, 16th, 2022

[10] https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20221207000164, North Korea to Hold Parliamentary Meeting on Jan. 17: KCNA, Korea Herald, December 7th, 2022

[11] https://time.com/6178501/covid-north-korea-kim-jong-un/, Two Million Cases, COVID-19 may finally force North Korea to Open Up, Guzman, Chad, Time Magazine, May 19th, 2022

[12] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/us/politics/china-spy-base-cuba.html, China Has Had a Spy Base in Cuba for Years, U.S. Official Says, NYTIMES.com, Karoun Demirjian, Edward Wong, June 10, 2023

[13] https://www.nytimes.com/article/north-korea-missile-launches.html, North Korea Conducts 7th Missile Test in Less than a Month, Choe-Sang Hun, New York Times, March 26th, 2023

[14] https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/mao-zedongs-grandson-rumoured-to-be-dead-in-north-korea-accident-makes-public, Mao’s Grandson Rumored to be Killed in North Korean Accident Makes Public Appearance, The Straits Times, May 17th, 2018

[15] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/european-central-bank-says-a-recession-has-become-more-likely, European Central Bank says A Recession “Has Become More Likely”, David McHugh, PBS News Hour, November 16th, 2022 

[16] https://www.reuters.com/world/high-hopes-china-eu-leaders-prepare-xi-talks-2023-04-06/, Macron Seeks China’s Help on Ukraine, Xi “Willing” to call Zelenskiy, Reuters.com, Michel, Rose, Laurie, Chen, April 6, 2023

[17] https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/asia-pacific/954343/what-would-happen-china-attempt-invade-taiwan, Is China About to Invade Taiwan, The Week, April 3rd, 2023

[18] https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/12/20/1144502320/the-taliban-took-our-last-hope-college-education-is-banned-for-women-in-afghanis, The Taliban Took Our Last Hope: College Education is Banned for Women in Afghanistan, Diaa, Hadid, National Public Radio, December 22nd, 2022

[19] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-april-6-2023/, IDF Says Hamas Behind Rocket Barrage from Lebanon Israel Expected to Retaliate, Fabian, Emanual, Times of Israel, April 6, 2023

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Copy of Letter Sent to The Honorable United States Representative Brad Schneider Dated January 25th, 2024

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To The Honorable Representative of the United States House of Representative, Representative Brad Schneider,

Dear Representative Brad Schneider,

Hello, my name is Kevin Michael Miller, and I’m currently a PhD. MOOC student in neuroscience, as well as Financial Engineering, Economics, and International Politics on the Massively Open Online Course websites, of Edx.org, and Coursera.org. I’m writing an order to convey my appreciation for your recent tele townhall, and its focus on delivering healthcare, and other vital healthcare related needs to the 10th district, and its cohorts. I’m writing this most recent letter, as an addendum to the previous letter which I wrote, concerning the need for proper appropriation, concerning the passage of the 2009 Affordable Care Act, and its provision of constituent services, in the United States Congress. My concerns I felt, were serious enough to warrant a letter to both your office, as well as the Late Senator Dianne Feinstein’s office. And, while I hoped that she would read the contents of my letters, as she’s done so many other times in the past, including during my earliest collegiate years, when I lived in southern California, and successfully campaigned for, and helped win, a successful recall of California Governor Gray Davis, and the election of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, against him. My concerns have been wide ranging since then. And since moving to the 10th Congressional District, here in Illinois. I’m proud to have helped first elect both Mark Kirk, to the United States House of Representatives, as well as to have voted for then State Senator Barack Obama, to the United States Senate. As I’ve said my concerns have been far ranging, and far reaching since then. Including the passage of Opioid and Fentanyl Legislation, so here entitled Matt’s Law (After a High School Classmate of Mine Whom Overdosed on Opioids in an Alleyway in Chicago in 2006). With the help of both the George W. Bush Administration, as well as the administration of then President Barack H. Obama. My most cherished memories of being part of the Republican party, are when I’m able to see legislation such as Opioid Legislation, as well as legislation pertaining to wounded veterans, and soldiers, as well as the other many legislations which I’ve advocated for, and sought to have passed along the way, particularly as concerns Xstat Syringe Wound Treatment systems, for our combat soldiers in Iraq, and Afghanistan, as well as other important legislative accomplishments which I’ve sought, and advocated for, in my twenty-two year long voting record, as well as my twenty-two year incumbency as a member of the Republican Party. I encourage you to find out more about my social, and political activism, particularly as relates to crises which have erupted on the world stage, concerning Ukraine, as well as the Middle East, and Israel. Which can be found at www.kevinspolitics.com. My most singular, and resolute contributions to the state, and its welfare, are found on this website. And it brings me great comfort to know that it will continue in its existence, which has existed in its most current form, since at least February of 2013. I encourage you, and your office to look at this website, for any ideas, or wisdom which you may derive from its political analysis, and content. Just as I encourage then Congressman Dold’s office to do the same, some years prior. My Letter at this juncture, is simply to encourage you to decrease taxes for your constituents, and to reject any legislation which may interfere in the ability for insurance providers to provide safe, and cost effective medications, and other health care needs. This includes legislation which may accelerate the dramatic increases in Government provided Health Insurance which has only continued, even with legislation which I have observed to be illegal, pertaining to the commerce clauses of the constitution. Including one piece of legislation which allows for the sale of unregulated Canadian, and Irish Pharmaceuticals, as replacements for readily produced, safe, and effective medications produced here in the United States. As well as another piece of legislation, which would merge two of the biggest insurance providers in the country Cigna, as well as Humana. Both legislative ideas, which I feel violate at least two significant clauses in the Commerce Act of 1886, as well as the commerce clauses in the United States Constitution. These concerns are only a brief of what I intended to write to you about, and I hope that by sharing my story in a published memoir, upon my graduation from Harvard University. hopefully this spring. That I’m able to further the conversation surrounding politics, diplomacy, but also real life, and what that means for young teens, and adolescents in the 21st century. I plan on supplying a number of copies to your office, upon successful publishing. And I look forward to having greater friendship, and comity with you, as we continue to spark conversations surrounding the everyday needs of the American People, as the Representative of the 10th district, here in Illinois, Dr. Schneider. I wanted to speak about the recent hearing on AI, as well as other just as pertinent world issues, affecting our country, and both parties. But I leave you now, as I hope that your days are merry, for you and your office. And I look forward to hearing more about these topics, from you, and your office. Thank You, and God Bless. – Kevin Michael Miller       

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Seychelles Declares State Of Emergency After Huge Explosion | World News Today | N18V | News18

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This powerful blast which rocked the Seychelles is eerily reminiscent of a similar one which rocked Egypt during the Arab Spring, and immediately before the Ouster of Hosni Mubarak, it will be interesting to see if the two are somehow related

#seychelles #worldnews #news18 Seychelles Declares State Of Emergency After Huge Explosion | World News Today | N18V | News18 The tiny Indian Ocean island nation of Seychelles declared a state of emergency Thursday after a huge blast at an explosives depot occurred after deadly flooding hit other parts of the country. #seychelles #worldnews #news18 #cnnnews18

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Treaty of the European Union and Basel III Reforms

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Abstract: First I give a brief overview of Article 107 of the Treaty of the EU(TEU). Next, I give a summation of the issues which have come up for the EU in the last decade which have affected state aid, and the guarantees inherent in the Treaty of the EU. These include the Greek Debt Crisis, as well as extraterritorial measures which have been taken an order to further enhance the quality, and characteristics of the EU Charter. Special consideration is given to Basel III reforms, as well as interterritorial EU regulations enacted since.

In the Treaty of the European Union (TEU) there falls Common Article 107. In this article of the European Union Treaty there is the express exclusion of any outside aid to states which may distort, or manipulate, the common cultural, and trade union established within the main text of the European Union Treaty. The text in Article 107 then goes on to explain the types of aid which shall be available to the E.U. Common Market. Thus included: aid having a social character for individual consumers, aid excepted due to natural disasters, and aid granted to the Federal Republic of Germany, or any of its cohorts. It then details a listing of the types of aid which may be seen as compatible with the common market. These are to include: aid which promotes economic development, or an increase in the standard of living, in countries and regions deemed as being underdeveloped, or in need of structural, economic, or social development. Aid to promote the common interest of Europe or to remedy a social disturbance, Aid to promote cultural heritage or conservation. Aid for the facilitating of economic activities or economic areas. As well as any other type of aid which may be forthcoming as specified by a decision of the E.U. Council, or the E.U. Commission.

Article 107 of the European Union Treaty is at the heart, as well as the periphery of several well defined attitudinal Fiscal, as well as Monetary measures which the European Union has pursued in recent years. Following the 2008 Financial Crisis and Worldwide recession, the contours, shape, and character of the European Union’s existence began to be questioned. This was after all one of the largest common markets ever to be created, after NAFTA. The main disagreements about the future of the European Union rested upon what have become issues of great importance. One, was the misbalancing of aide which was available to member states immediately after the crisis, and the perceived monopoly on talent, as well as physical resources and infrastructure which Western European countries were alleged to have “cornered” in the single currency market. As well as the debate over the Greek financial crisis, and the subsequent bailout for Greece, so that it could remain a part of the E.U. These perceived structural flaws, and also the domination of France, Germany, and the U.K. in any bailout negotiations, caused much consternation, and friction amongst fellow E.U. member states, as well as Eurozone, and potential E.U. member states. Then there was the perceived mismanagement of the accession to the E.U. of several Eastern European states, and the rolling out of the Euro to those states which began to rankle some feathers. These problems were only exacerbated by the financial crisis, as well as upheavals in Brussels, the base of operations of the E.U., which was perceived as being too detached from the everyday lives of the E.U. citizens which it was allegedly beholden too. Throughout all of this, the Greek Debt Crisis, the Financial Crisis, accession talks, as well as the perceived structural flaws, was the fact that these institutions which the foundations of Europe rested upon; The Lisbon Treaty, Schengen, the Treaty of the European Union, the Common Currency, and single market; was the fact that these agreements had only been codified into law and implemented in the last decade or so. There was talk of the invoking of Common Article 7 of the E.U. Treaty (TEU), which would have suspended membership rights of certain member states, thus dealing a blow to the E.U. overall.

These were for all intents and purposes, some of the most trying times Europe had ever seen since the Post-War, Post-Cold War era, and yet there was more. The United States was currently engaged in conflicts around the world in GWOT, or the Global War on Terror. These wars, which were in large part a by-product of the attacks on September 11th, were beginning to become financially all consuming, for not only for the United States, but also, in the case of Iraq, Afghanistan, as well as the ISAF, or International Security Assistance Force, for European governments as well. These fissures in international treaties amongst stakeholders, were present not only in the period immediately during, and following the 2008 Financial Crisis, but also in the years leading up to it. These were heady times for Europe indeed.

However, what was not missing were the Western Institutions which made up these treaty obligations in the first place, namely; Rule of Law, Safe Access to the Seas, Liberal Humanistic Traditions, Liberal Economics, Liberal International Traditions, as well as Europe itself. Some of these laws, institutions, and ideas which had been around since before the Romans, may have been shaken, but they were built on sturdy foundations, and though the Common Articles of the Adopted Treaty of Europe were foundational, they were merely a touchstone when viewed through the long lens of European history. And so, though these were difficult times for Europe, this was not a situation altogether foreign to them, and they had been through far worse, with far less, in other words, the E.U. would survive.

This was the case with the further ratification by the E.U. and its member states of the Toledo Protocols. These protocols which are referred to now as the Basel III reforms, were in part spearheaded by the European Union, which were authorized under Common Article 107, as well as the Establishment, and Standard Procedure Clauses of the Charter of the European Union Treaty. These reforms, which were immediately put into practice at Banks, and Financial Institutions around the World, provided for a common language which the Banks, and Governments could have an order to assess risk, as well as the expansion of ratio reserve requirements. There were treaty obligations standardizing an approach to rating credit risk of individuals, and Institutions. There were new Internal Ratings Benchmarks (IRB’s) which were set. New Valuation Risk Frameworks, Operational, as well as Leverage Ratios which were now implemented. As well as output floors and ceilings, along with transitional arrangements meant to smooth the implementation of new rules. These reforms, which The European Union was able to negotiate and ratify for all treaty bound E.U. states, fall under the Standard Procedure Clauses, of the European Union, Which Common Article 107 falls under, and were immediately adopted by the E.U., as well as the Eurozone making them amongst some of the earliest adopters of this international treaty, and providing durable, and stable foundations for the European Union, in the immediate wake, and aftermath of the 2008 Global Recession. All of this was going on in addition to a number of reforms in the Tax Code of the European Ruling, including reforms to the Parent-Subsidiary Rules. These reforms which elaborated upon General Anti-Abuse Measures, Minimum Holding Requirements, as well as a rearrangement of Hybrid Loan Schemes, have become part of the bedrock of the European Union Treaty Laws governing State Aid, and Taxation.   This comeuppance was much needed by the Bureaucrats back in Brussels and other European Capitals and would serve as a guidepost, and imprimatur for not only what the European Union is capable of, but also, so much more which it is capable of transcending to.

Article 107 which enumerates the specificity of aid for E.U. countries is an integral part of the TEU. It’s whole is part of the broader so-called Standard Procedure Clauses which make up the bulk of the E.U.’s governing powers and authorities. This clause is integral to any decision making in the European Union, as elaborated upon earlier in my essay. The European Union is a major decision maker not only with regards to the continent of Europe, but also as concerns the global reach, and global regard which Europe, and the E.U. see within themselves. While the most troubling crisis of the E.U. experiment have receded, there is still yet more to be done. And while there remains E.U.-United States friction over the overall direction of the E.U. this much is true, that the E.U. is a force for change, and good in the World, and the stated goals and objectives of this nascent organization represent some of the most noble, and highest attainments of mankind, and humanity that we have ever witnessed.

          

A Moment Of Your Time..., African Affairs, Domestic Affairs, European Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Russian Affairs, United Nations Diplomacy

On the Issue Concerning the Bombings, and Kidnappings in Israel, and Jerusalem Over the Weekend of October 8th, 2023

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Concerning the recent crisis in the Gaza Strip, and the incursion of Missile fire, and other asymmetrical, and other violent means, to effect a conclusion to the ongoing dispute between Israel.

Hamas, and its collection of Parent, and Partner organization, including the Palestinian Liberation Organization, PLO, Hizballah, and its main benefactor the effectual, and illegitimate Government of Bashar Al-Assad’s Syrian Regime.

Israel, and the States which believe in the sanctity, and preciousness of Peace, and human life, must find a way toward a peaceful settlement of the situation.

The War against Hamas, in the West Bank, and Gaza Strip, if it is to proceed. Must be successful in its intended, and stated aims and goals, of successfully occupying, and pacifying the terrorist elements that have become a nuisance, in both the Gaza Strip Territories, The West Bank, Israeli Settlements, and occupied; annexed lands. As well as the surmised lands which fall under Israeli control, and fiat. Including Shebaa Farms, and the enclaves in and surrounding the disputed territories which lie on the borders with Lebanon, and Syria.

If there is to be a truly successful, and deliberative end to, and cessation of hostilities. In a decisive, and one-sided victory, ending in the establishment of the Jewish State, throughout all lands, presumed to be under the Federation, and control, of illegitimately elected Militias, Terrorist, and Warlords.

The unfortunate events which took place over the Weekend of October 8, 2023, have only brought more pain, suffering, and turmoil to the Palestinian Peoples, and their erstwhile way of living. This state, of uncooperation, as well as societal, and moral decay, must end, and should be deliberatively disposed of, by the Israeli Knesset, and Military. At the earliest possible junction.

The delegitimization of the Palestinian Peoples, and their plight, and suffering. By what has thus far amounted to a band, of terrorist, thugs, hooligans, and those seeking civil strife, must come to an end.

I call on the United Nations Security Council to expressly endorse the legitimate actions of the Israeli Military. And I call on the United States, and the Security Council to condemn these bombings, kidnappings, and killings.       

Foreign Policy, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, United Nations Diplomacy

A Potential Pathway, to a Peaceful Solution, to the Middle East, and Nuclear Crisis with Iran

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Iran has a very difficult time ahead. The bringing back of U.S. sanctions will direct Iran’s economy into recession. The persistence in the Nuclear Program has damaged seriously, the economy of Iran, as the country is isolated from Global Commerce, by United States Sanctions. Besides that, Iran has all the resources, both Natural, Intellectual, as well as Geopolitical. That an economy needs, to develop a much more significant role, in the International Arena. The Country will never reach Great Wealth, or true Great Power Status, in the Near East, or Middle East, or the World for that matter. While isolated from the West, and under United States Sanction.

An order to ameliorate this, the first step should be to recognize, and accept the existence of Israel, as a Nation that has the right to exist. And stop supporting, and giving aid, to Terrorists Groups. Such as Hizbollah, and Hamas.

Secondly, the Covert Nuclear Program has evolved into other forms of energy exploitation, as wind, solar and other forms of energy have also prevailed. The Iranian Nation could become an example to the World, as it develops new and efficient forms of Energy, with respect to the Environment. There will be always the opposition of the United States to the Nuclear Program. And it has delayed the development of the Country, and the well being of its people, that have suffered terribly with these societal, and economic barriers.

Iran is in a difficut situation, between its peoples stated desire to integrate into the West’s Global Economic Prosperity.  And the persistence of a Revolutionary Ideology, led by Ayatollah Khamenei. In which opposition to the West, and denial of Israel’s existence, constitute core elements of the Islamic Republic’s identity. These contradictions, avoid the development of a Foreign Policy, accordingly with Iran’s National interests. The people of Iran want peace and progress, an order to make possible their own economic, and societal progress. Opposition to the West by their leadership. And development by their Radical, and Ideological Government of Covert Nuclear Techonologies, and their Possible Military Dimensions (PMD). Will never allow them to achieve these goals. There must be a renouncing of the Foreign Policy of exportation of the Revolution, vis a vis, violence. And more of a focus on development within the borders of the Country, and Peace with the West, and Isael. Leaving behind the Possible Military Dimensions of their indigenous Nuclear Program. And looking forward, for new kinds of Energy, and opening their Society, and Economy, allowing them to renew, and strengthen, their relationship with the West, and other Countries.

After forty years of the Islamic Revolution, it is evident the failure in promoting wealth, and prosperity, for different social groups, such as teachers, the rural poor, retirees and bus drivers, among others. Has brought a deleterious effect to their economic prosperity. And societal well-being.

My Proposal is this. The Introduction of the Constitution of Iran, States That: “The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran is a Declaration of the Social, Cultural, Political, and Economic Foundations of the Iranian Society. Based on Islamic Principles, and Norms, that Reflect the Heartfelt Desire, of the Islamic Community. These Fundamental Desires, are Elaborated, in the Qualities of the Great Islamic Revolution of Iran, and the Revolutionary Process of the Muslim People, from the Beginning to the Victory. Principles which were Crystallized through the Decisive and Strong Slogans of All Segments of Society. Now at the Dawn of This Great Victory, our Nation Longs, Wholeheartedly, to Realize This Demand”.

The policy of developing covert Nuclear Technology for the purposes of Possible Military Dimensions, and recognizing the right of Israel to exist, is the de facto norm, for any upstart peace process which may in fact ensue. Should their be a leadership change in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Or if their is to be a de facto cessation of hostilities, as with the proposal of a Peaceful Religion, as the Islamic State, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, have stated as striving for, as a state of being. The mentioned introduction to their Constitution, should instead be changed to say “Iran is a Peaceful Republic of Islamic People, that Exports Peace and New Technologies to Bring less suffering, to the Whole Humanity.”

Accordingly in Article 14 of the Constitution: “In accordance with the Sacred Verses of the Holy Quran; (“God does not forbid you to deal kindly, and justly, with those who have not fought against you, because of your religion, and who have not expelled you from your homes [60:8])”. The Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and all Muslims are duty-bound to Treat Non-Muslims in Conformity with Ethical Norms and the Principles of Islamic Justice and Equity, and to Respect their Human Rights. This Principle, Applies to All Who Refrain From Engaging in Conspiracy, or Activity, against Islam, and the Islamic Republic of Iran”.

Recognizing the State of Israel, in my opinion, and as I mention. Fulfills the Will of the Command of Article 14 of the Constitution as it Mentions the Respect of Other Peoples, Religion, and the Right to Exist.

The Solution, is to Understand Islamic Law, and Sharia, as being Consistent, with International Human Rights, Norms, and with Liberal Economic Policies.

The Country needs a Constitutional Reform, an order to Put Away Clauses Incompatible with Iran’s Modernisation, and Integration, with the World, writ large. This Should be Implemented, and Preceded by a Referendum, ex vi Article 59, of the Constitution, and a Subsequent Constitutional Reform. 

At the time It had been reported that Iran’s proposal has been accepted by the international community. In part the proposal forces Iran to discontinue certain parts of its nuclear program and allow outside international observers to monitor the partial dismantlement. In return the west will relax some of the crippling sanctions against Iran that forced them to the negotiating table in the first place. Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed his disgust with the proposal, reportedly, and urges the U.S. to reject the current deal as is.[1] This proposal; the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Agreement, and its future, is the most urgent issue facing Iran for the short term, as well as the long-term future.

Personally, I think that Iran is approaching these continuing JCPoA negotiations in good faith, but I think that the urgency on their side is not there. After all there were negotiations about a range of topics including the nuclear program back in 2007. I believe that after the accord this is really it for Iran. We have reached a fork in the road and its Iran’s path to choose.

They can option one: agree that their nuclear program is not going down a path that is for peaceful purposes and give up their quest for nuclear weapons. This will allow for a freer and safer Middle East that will be less antagonizing and more cooperative with one another.[2]

Or option two: go down a path that is not conducive to peace and prosperity for either the Iranian people or the Middle East in general. This will cause much suspicion amongst the allies of the U.S. and much consternation for the people of Iran. The results could be catastrophic for Iran and would put them in a position where Iran as it exists now may not exist in the future.[3]

The choice is Iran’s and Iran’s alone.[4] They must understand that this is not the beginning of a process but rather an end to a very long and convoluted dispute. The talks that were held in Geneva are meant to end the conversation over Iran’s nuclear program, not prolong a process that in their minds may just be beginning. [5]  The past decade has revealed that stability is only attained when the U.S. speaks not only to its friends but to its enemies as well. In the case of Iran, this is especially true. The talks which were held in Geneva, for the U.S., represent the ending culmination of a process that has taken at least six presidents to conclude. Again, the choice going forward is Iran’s, and Iran’s alone. 

[1] Netanyahu claims Iran lied about nuclear program, Politico.com, Quint, Forgey, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/30/netanyahu-iran-documents-559987, Accessed On: 06/25/19

[2] Obama’s Hidden Iran Deal Giveaway, Politico.com, Josh, Meyer, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/24/obama-iran-nuclear-deal-prisoner-release-236966, Accessed On: 06/25/19

[3] Pompeo threats Iran with “Strongest Sanctions in History”, Politico.com, Louis, Nelson, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/mike-pompeo-iran-sanctions-600922, Accessed On: 06/25/19

[4] Iran’s Supreme Leader Endorses Nuclear Deal, Politico.com, Gass, Nick, https://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-nuclear-214992, Accessed On: 06/25/19

[5] Ex-Diplomats Urge Ratification of Iran Deal, Politico.com, Terry, Mucahy, https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/iran-deal-diplomats-letter-ratification-120648, Accessed On: 06/25/19

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A Letter to the Honorable Governor Gavin Newsom for consideration for appointment to the Senate of the United States of America for the Great State of California

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To The Honorable Governor Gavin Newsom,

Dear Governor Newsom,

Hello, my name is Kevin Michael Miller, and I’m currently a resident of Illinois, residing in the Gurnee-Waukegan area. I’m writing because I would like to be considered for appointment to the United States Senate, representing the great state of California, my former state of residency.

After moving to California in the Summer of 2003, and pursuing a career in film and television, I was able to successfully have an award winning manuscript which I wrote in my teacher, Michael Mann relative, Johnathon Mann’s class, for what would become known as, the Stanley Kubrick directed film, “Eyes Wide Shut”.

After having this initial success, however, I decided, after continuing my studies in Political, and Social Philosophy, to pursue a career in Politics, foregoing any further encumbrances, to what could have been, and could still become, a flourishing acting, television, and film career.

My movie star good looks, are belied by my keen intellect, intelligible, though southern (I originally hail from Tampa, Florida) vernacular, and the character which has carried me through some of the nations most pressing, and arduous times. Particularly for my generation. As Someone who was born in 1984, I’ve witnessed the great recession, the great pandemic, the great climate change, and everything great in between.

I won’t tarry long with my request. I’m requesting that I be appointed to the seat which is currently vacated by Senator Dianne Feinstein, the longest serving senator from the San Francisco Bay Area. Though a Republican, I think my appointment would serve several fold for you, and your erstwhile agenda, in Californian, as well as Floridian, and the Nations Politics.

By appointing a well-regarded, and former well known Mouseketeer to the United States Senate. You, and I together would bring many constituencies together, an order to bring about the greatest good for all of Californians, and indeed the fifth largest economy in the World. I feel that by highlighting my exemplary conduct, which can be found on my blog at: kevinspolitics.com, as well as my Instagram feed, which has over 100k thousand, followers.

I think that we, me, and you, can work together before the American people, an order to make California, truly one of the most beautiful, safest, and most prosperous states in the Union. I recently posted on my blog a copy of a letter which I sent to Dianne Feinstein, and I urge you to look up the contents on it, on my website kevinspolitics.com, for any additional information about my history, and potential which you may need.

I look forward to hearing back from you, and I look forward to working with you, an order to make with the Senate, and Congress; The United States, and especially California, truly the most prosperous land that has ever existed.

Thank You, and I look forward to hearing from you about this exciting opportunity.

Sincerely,

Kevin Michael Miller

www.kevinspolitics.com 

African Affairs, East Asian Affairs, European Affairs, Foreign Policy, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Russian Affairs, United Nations Diplomacy

Considering the beginning of a US-Russian-Sino period of contestation for Hegemony, and Dominance

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military parade in city
Photo by Дмитрий Трепольский on Pexels.com

For its part America must wade into these difficult times with caution and a combination of carrots and sticks for all parties involved. This has already been shown with the heavy handedness that the administration has rebuked countries such as Russia, and North Korea with sanctions targeting their elite.

Beijing’s increasing power and influence in Asia, and the arguably growing danger of a serious crisis emerging in the near to medium-term over volatile issues such as Taiwan, North Korea, and several territorial disputes along China’s borders.[1]  

America must stand strong against possible aggression from all parties named, response to crises on periphery more important than at first observed, response to events crucial, must regain global respect for America, leaving the big wars for the rest while we prepare for the inevitable big test for our country, prepare for counterpoised organizations to the United States’ New World Order, do not let others dictate American narrative, be prepared for parts of the world to be hostile to the U.S. for the long term, prepare for war but don’t initiate it.

So long as U.S. maintains moral high ground domino effect is obsolete much as we saw in the 1980’s with Russia in Afghanistan.

We should, however, prepare for large parts of Asia, and Africa to be in world conflict which will be Sino-Soviet in nature and will have absolutely nothing to do with the United States.

China views itself as an aspiring yet nonaggressive great power, increasingly confident yet also acutely sensitive to domestic and external challenges to its stability and status. China’s leaders, and many ordinary Chinese citizens, possess a strong memory of the nation’s supposed historical victimization and manipulation at the hands of stronger powers. Thus, they are prepared to go to significant lengths to avoid the appearance of being weak and “giving-in” to great power pressures, or of engaging in predatory or manipulative behavior themselves. Chinese leaders also evince a very strong commitment to specific basic principles and core interests, especially those principles and interests associated with the defense of China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, both of which are related closely to national dignity. This viewpoint is apparently also shared by many ordinary Chinese citizens.[2]

North Korea is a victim of their own system; toxic alliances such as Syria, and possibly China will be a negative mitigating effect on North Korea as a whole. If there is no rapprochement with South Korea there could be much suffering in North Korea and eventual undoing from Sino-Soviet war as they are forced to choose sides through coercion from both the Chinese and Russians. Expect for trend of celebrities engaging in politics to continue (think North Korea); expect mostly celebrities from Hollywood, and the American and European Political intelligentsia, to be disgruntled by new administration in U.S., will take to spying and openly soliciting foreign governments (besides North Korea) with so-called expertise a la Edward Snowden, should not be a problem so long as U.S. has positive narrative.

            In the end it will ultimately be up to America to chart its own destiny. We can be confrontational and get caught up in the Sino-Soviet sphere of conflict. Or we can take the high road and refuse to give into Russian, and Sino intransigence while simultaneously solving some of the world’s most dangerous issues such as the North Korean Question, Pakistani-Indian relations, and the Middle East.

By not Kowtowing to pressures from either the Russian’s and their neo-imperial ambitions, or the ascendancy of a less than peaceful China, America can act as a beacon of light and a counter weight to these two very real, and significant second tier powers whose Hegemonic designs will eventually lead them to confrontation.

I would like to end with a quote from a paper Robert Jervis wrote for World Politics in 1978:

“The security dilemma is at its most vicious when commitments, strategy, or technology dictate that the only route to security lies through expansion. Status-quo powers must then act like aggressors; the fact that they would gladly agree to forego the opportunity for expansion in return for guarantees for their security has no implications for their behavior. Even if expansion is not sought as a goal in itself, there will be quick and drastic changes in the distribution of territory and influence.”[3]

In the Director of National Intelligence’s Global Trends 2030 Report the idea of relative U.S. decline is noted. Indeed it states “The replacement of the United States by another global power and erection of a new international order seems the least likely outcome…” And goes on to say: “The emerging powers are eager to take their place at the top table of key multilateral institutions such as UN, IMF, and World Bank, but they do not espouse any competing vision. Although ambivalent and even resentful of the US-led international order, they have benefited from it and are more interested in continuing their economic development and political consolidation than contesting US leadership. In addition, the emerging powers are not a bloc; thus they do not have any unitary alternative vision. Their perspectives—even China’s—are more keyed to shaping regional structures.”[4]

This likelihood is the precedent that I cite for my reasoning as to why I foresee a U.S. that is still relatively much more powerful than either China, or Russia, but is unable to control their actions any longer due to the rise in technological prowess, as well as military advancements.

When the time comes where Russia, and China begin to build multilateral institutions for their exclusive benefit (as is already the case), and they feel that they are no longer subject to the global political and economic institutions of the status quo Global Order.

This is when we can begin to see the unraveling of regions in which you see the aforementioned states’ dominance is most felt.

This unraveling could entail anything from a virtual wall of fact distortion placed by the dominating state over itself and any cooperative satellites; to a physical travel restriction by these states against U.S. allied countries, similar to the iron curtain during the cold war; to the onset of war, as we’ve seen in Ukraine, between Russia, it’s satellites, and China, and its satellites.

With the United States playing the role of mediator between the two, while unable to travel to those countries in the world due to the enactment of trade, cultural, and travel barriers between the warring factions, and the United States and its allies.    

In a September 17th, 2015 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Admiral Harry Harris was asked  by Senator Thom Tillis, (R – NC), about the time at which the United States’ qualitative advantage, in a “unfair fight” would be matched or exceeded, by the Peoples Republic of China’s quantitative advantage. In the hearing Admiral Harris said that they would have capability, assuming that the United States continued on its current trajectory, sometime in “The mid-twenty-twenties.”[5]

This assertion plays into the ideas that Robert Jervis has previously postulated and that I bring up here in relation to China, and Russia, when I say that once they no longer have anything to fear, there is the possibility of real trouble in whatever parts of the world that China and Russia consider to be in their de facto sphere of influence.

This is something that will surely become a test to the American Administration at the time as China would use its economic influence to foment revolt, while Russia can jump into the fray and militarize further conflicts which may have seemed at first to require only a deft hand at crisis management.

In fact we are able to see this panoply of more options available to Russia and China as we have seen China Militarize the South China Sea, and Russia use its military advancements to invade Ukraine, and to support the Assad regime in Syria by providing military material, knowhow, and placing boots on the ground. These extra judicial steps have been taken; China by claiming territorial rights over international waters; and Russia, inviting itself to Syria under the guise of the war on terrorism.

This is only the beginning of something that has the potential to become much more serious, namely, a global confrontation between the east and the west. All hope is not lost though for the United States, we were able to successfully find hunt and kill Osama Bin Laden, we have limited our role in Iraq, and we were able to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2021.

So then what role can the United States play in this increasingly more dangerous security paradigm: Cautious and Prudent.

We as a nation cannot allow ourselves to be caught in the trap of mission creep and further conflict management issues, namely war.

We must buttress our moral consistency for this long hard slog that we could potentially see ourselves going through.

We must be vigilant and be able to project strength. This means that we cannot be tied down in a recurring litany of what some might call small wars.

But we also can’t get lost in the abyss of a large conflagration.

We must on the one hand protect our allies, and project strength.

While on the other hand we cannot and will not allow ourselves to be manipulated by Chinese, and Russian Hawks, and Generals.

This will not be easy and will take an American Administration that has the intellectual knowhow and political savvy requisite to deal with these emerging threats.

Who or what this Administration will look like, this author will leave up to the American public to decide. 

[1] CHINESE NATIONAL SECURITY DECISIONMAKING UNDER STRESS, Edited by Andrew Scobell Larry M. Wortzel, CHINESE CRISIS MANAGEMENT: FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS, TENTATIVE OBSERVATIONS, AND QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE, Michael D. Swaine, p.5, September 2005

[2] CHINESE NATIONAL SECURITY DECISIONMAKING UNDER STRESS, Edited by Andrew Scobell Larry M. Wortzel, CHINESE CRISIS MANAGEMENT: FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS, TENTATIVE OBSERVATIONS, AND QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE, Michael D. Swaine, p.16, September 2005

[3] Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma, Robert Jervis, Pg. 187, http://www.jstor.org/stable/2009958?origin=JSTOR-pdf, 1978 Princeton University Press

[4] DNI.Gov, Office of The Director of National Intelligence, “Global Trends: 2030: Alternative Worlds”,   http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/global-trends-2030, Accessed September 15th, 2015  

[5] C-SPAN.org, Admiral Harry Harris, “Hearing on Maritime Security Strategy in the Asia-Pacific”, http://www.c-span.org/video/?328185-1/hearing-us-maritime-security-strategy-asiapacific, Accessed September 17th, 2015