Tag Archives: Arab Spring

Introduction: Beyond Globalization

white smoke coming out from a building
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Globalization, a relatively recent economic phenomena, and norm, at least in its most recent incarnation. Has brought wealth, prosperity, and diversity to billions of individuals worldwide. In the following pages, I try to clarify the effects of Globalization, and its normative successes, as well as failures. I will do this through the lens of a World which has been greatly affected by the COVID-19 crisis, and the resultant regime. And, I will attempt to perceive the future of Globalization. One in which the world is no longer ravaged by famine, plague, and Political disorder. And, one in which the United States, partners with its allies, to create better societies, throughout the World, while at the same time, taking account of the usury, and unobligated expenses, which the worlds remaining dictatorships have been party to.

This appraisal includes Russia, and its wars not only in Ukraine, but Syria as well. And, while the addition of credit extended, and credit used, has propelled dictatorial regimes, such as Iran, North Korea, and Russia, into higher, more prosperous, and more useful credit, and asset classes. Bringing into question the rules, and obligations of the established Global World Order, led by the United States. These credit bubbles, which have instead become a part of the international investment positions of these countries. Has led many millions of the former world’s poor, into levels of attainment, and wealth, never before seen by a great many of them.

And, while these credit snafus, have ultimately only legitimated, and benefitted the regimes in question. The adjoining information is useful, an order to better allow the perception of these misdeeds, as well as the sheer magnitude which they hold in their size, scope, and weight, as failed, or formerly failing nation states. And how that may apply to future conflicts, or even transboundary disputes, which may arise during any given circumstance. Particular attention is paid to the solvency of the European Union, and the United States, as well. 

Copy of Letter Sent to The Honorable United States Representative Brad Schneider Dated January 25th, 2024

To The Honorable Representative of the United States House of Representative, Representative Brad Schneider,

Dear Representative Brad Schneider,

Hello, my name is Kevin Michael Miller, and I’m currently a PhD. MOOC student in neuroscience, as well as Financial Engineering, Economics, and International Politics on the Massively Open Online Course websites, of Edx.org, and Coursera.org. I’m writing an order to convey my appreciation for your recent tele townhall, and its focus on delivering healthcare, and other vital healthcare related needs to the 10th district, and its cohorts. I’m writing this most recent letter, as an addendum to the previous letter which I wrote, concerning the need for proper appropriation, concerning the passage of the 2009 Affordable Care Act, and its provision of constituent services, in the United States Congress. My concerns I felt, were serious enough to warrant a letter to both your office, as well as the Late Senator Dianne Feinstein’s office. And, while I hoped that she would read the contents of my letters, as she’s done so many other times in the past, including during my earliest collegiate years, when I lived in southern California, and successfully campaigned for, and helped win, a successful recall of California Governor Gray Davis, and the election of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, against him. My concerns have been wide ranging since then. And since moving to the 10th Congressional District, here in Illinois. I’m proud to have helped first elect both Mark Kirk, to the United States House of Representatives, as well as to have voted for then State Senator Barack Obama, to the United States Senate. As I’ve said my concerns have been far ranging, and far reaching since then. Including the passage of Opioid and Fentanyl Legislation, so here entitled Matt’s Law (After a High School Classmate of Mine Whom Overdosed on Opioids in an Alleyway in Chicago in 2006). With the help of both the George W. Bush Administration, as well as the administration of then President Barack H. Obama. My most cherished memories of being part of the Republican party, are when I’m able to see legislation such as Opioid Legislation, as well as legislation pertaining to wounded veterans, and soldiers, as well as the other many legislations which I’ve advocated for, and sought to have passed along the way, particularly as concerns Xstat Syringe Wound Treatment systems, for our combat soldiers in Iraq, and Afghanistan, as well as other important legislative accomplishments which I’ve sought, and advocated for, in my twenty-two year long voting record, as well as my twenty-two year incumbency as a member of the Republican Party. I encourage you to find out more about my social, and political activism, particularly as relates to crises which have erupted on the world stage, concerning Ukraine, as well as the Middle East, and Israel. Which can be found at www.kevinspolitics.com. My most singular, and resolute contributions to the state, and its welfare, are found on this website. And it brings me great comfort to know that it will continue in its existence, which has existed in its most current form, since at least February of 2013. I encourage you, and your office to look at this website, for any ideas, or wisdom which you may derive from its political analysis, and content. Just as I encourage then Congressman Dold’s office to do the same, some years prior. My Letter at this juncture, is simply to encourage you to decrease taxes for your constituents, and to reject any legislation which may interfere in the ability for insurance providers to provide safe, and cost effective medications, and other health care needs. This includes legislation which may accelerate the dramatic increases in Government provided Health Insurance which has only continued, even with legislation which I have observed to be illegal, pertaining to the commerce clauses of the constitution. Including one piece of legislation which allows for the sale of unregulated Canadian, and Irish Pharmaceuticals, as replacements for readily produced, safe, and effective medications produced here in the United States. As well as another piece of legislation, which would merge two of the biggest insurance providers in the country Cigna, as well as Humana. Both legislative ideas, which I feel violate at least two significant clauses in the Commerce Act of 1886, as well as the commerce clauses in the United States Constitution. These concerns are only a brief of what I intended to write to you about, and I hope that by sharing my story in a published memoir, upon my graduation from Harvard University. hopefully this spring. That I’m able to further the conversation surrounding politics, diplomacy, but also real life, and what that means for young teens, and adolescents in the 21st century. I plan on supplying a number of copies to your office, upon successful publishing. And I look forward to having greater friendship, and comity with you, as we continue to spark conversations surrounding the everyday needs of the American People, as the Representative of the 10th district, here in Illinois, Dr. Schneider. I wanted to speak about the recent hearing on AI, as well as other just as pertinent world issues, affecting our country, and both parties. But I leave you now, as I hope that your days are merry, for you and your office. And I look forward to hearing more about these topics, from you, and your office. Thank You, and God Bless. – Kevin Michael Miller       

On the Issue Concerning the Bombings, and Kidnappings in Israel, and Jerusalem Over the Weekend of October 8th, 2023

Concerning the recent crisis in the Gaza Strip, and the incursion of Missile fire, and other asymmetrical, and other violent means, to effect a conclusion to the ongoing dispute between Israel.

Hamas, and its collection of Parent, and Partner organization, including the Palestinian Liberation Organization, PLO, Hizballah, and its main benefactor the effectual, and illegitimate Government of Bashar Al-Assad’s Syrian Regime.

Israel, and the States which believe in the sanctity, and preciousness of Peace, and human life, must find a way toward a peaceful settlement of the situation.

The War against Hamas, in the West Bank, and Gaza Strip, if it is to proceed. Must be successful in its intended, and stated aims and goals, of successfully occupying, and pacifying the terrorist elements that have become a nuisance, in both the Gaza Strip Territories, The West Bank, Israeli Settlements, and occupied; annexed lands. As well as the surmised lands which fall under Israeli control, and fiat. Including Shebaa Farms, and the enclaves in and surrounding the disputed territories which lie on the borders with Lebanon, and Syria.

If there is to be a truly successful, and deliberative end to, and cessation of hostilities. In a decisive, and one-sided victory, ending in the establishment of the Jewish State, throughout all lands, presumed to be under the Federation, and control, of illegitimately elected Militias, Terrorist, and Warlords.

The unfortunate events which took place over the Weekend of October 8, 2023, have only brought more pain, suffering, and turmoil to the Palestinian Peoples, and their erstwhile way of living. This state, of uncooperation, as well as societal, and moral decay, must end, and should be deliberatively disposed of, by the Israeli Knesset, and Military. At the earliest possible junction.

The delegitimization of the Palestinian Peoples, and their plight, and suffering. By what has thus far amounted to a band, of terrorist, thugs, hooligans, and those seeking civil strife, must come to an end.

I call on the United Nations Security Council to expressly endorse the legitimate actions of the Israeli Military. And I call on the United States, and the Security Council to condemn these bombings, kidnappings, and killings.       

Whereas the International Court of Justice shall interpret the UN Charter, as relates to Articles 41, 42, 51, and 25 of Chapter VII of the UN Charter concerning redress from the UN Security Council, as relates to an Aerial Incident at Lockerbie, Scotland, (Libyan Arab Jamahiriya v. United States of America) non gratis

ancient theatre in sabratha
Photo by Ayşe on Pexels.com

Whereas the International Court of Justice shall interpret the UN Charter, as relates to Articles 41, 42, 51, and 25 of Chapter VII of the UN Charter concerning redress from the UN Security Council, as relates to matters expressly relevant to treaty which ratified the Montreal Convention. And seeing to it that such convention shall correspond to the prohibition of the forcibly taking, possessing, or destruction, of an airliner, under any circumstances, and as such. It is in light of these statutes, and all relevant statutes granting the ICJ jurisdiction over these considerations therewith, that the ICJ declined the Libyan government request, in the case arising from the Aerial Incident at Lockerbie (Libyan Arab Jamahiriya v. United States of America) non gratis. Such was the opinion of the Court that Libya could in fact still be held liable for the Lockerbie bombings, despite the capacities afforded to it as a liberal nation state, which sought to sue the families of the deceased for having violated Article 25 of the UN Charter, erga omnes partes, in situ lex specialis, una foras. This interpretation of the UN mandate has been noted as being especially egregious by many public scholars, as well as by all Western Governments. For the particulars of this case it is especially telling that a number of enumerations of the UN Charter were noted against the government of Libya, including Articles 41, personae rationae; 42, personae materiae; and 51, personae temporis.

It goes without saying that the UN Charter as well as the Geneva Conventions governing the Conduct of War, and the treatment of the wounded and sick, expressly Conventions 1, 2, and 3; as well as prisoners of war, and Common Article III governing the treatment of hostiles on the battlefield,  must also be included concerning these crimes.

The attempt to sue the families of the deceased for having in effect been killed by the Libyan Government goes against all legal and customary norms as enumerated in the Vienna Conventions, the Geneva, and Hague Conventions, as well as any known customary laws, either Western, or otherwise.

The Libyan Governments argument that Article 25 expressly enjoys them the permissions to act on behalf of the international community, is in itself egregious, and unmistakable for its corruptible, and faulty logic.

In fact, it could be easily deduced from its faulty logic, and egregious thumbing of the nose at the International Community, to be considered in it of itself an admission of guilt, from the Libyan Government head himself.

As sad as this case is, it has only set a precedent for other heinous acts to follow. And the delayed justice which the families received from the Lockerbie Scotland Case, only sought to reaffirm the depravity, and degradations which tyrants may go to, an order to escape justice.

This case  helps to shed light on The February 14, 2005, attack that killed Rafic Hariri, the President at the time of Lebanon, which was a terrible blow for the advancement of Lebanese nationalism, and served only to strengthen the hold that Bashar al-Assad’s Syria had on the country, as an illegitimate, occupying power. And although the Syrian government was eventually forced to leave Lebanon in 2006 shortly before Israel’s war with Hezbollah. The perpetrators of this crime were never caught. A special tribunal was established shortly after the death of the former Lebanese Prime Minister, which has been headed by United Nations Independent International Investigation Commissioner Daniel Bellamare. The good news is that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) made their decision in the affirmative, upholding the charges against the accused, thereby allowing the trial to proceed. The crux of the decision fell to the case “Prosecutor v. Ayyash, Badreddine, Merhi, Oneissi and Sabra case (“Ayyash et al.”)” and has been ongoing since 2009. The antecedents of the case stipulate that these four Lebanese nationals, conspired with the regime of Bashar al-Assad to assassinate Rafic Hariri in February of 2005. Specifically, there are cellphone records, and computer metadata which points to Bashar al-Assad ordering these men to kill former Prime Minister Hariri, to prevent Lebanon from breaking away from Syria, after elections later that year.

This damning evidence will be released to the wider world hopefully at an opportune time which will allow for the United States to expose the crimes of the Assad regime. This is an opportunity that the United States cannot let go to waste and must capitalize on so that the administration can exert maximum pressure on the Assad Regime.

In light of the Lockerbie Bombing case, as well as the delayed justice, which was sought but only partially rectified, as relates to the Libyan perpetrators, it is my recommendation that the ICC should Expedite the release of the report from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. They should have the chief prosecutor Daniel Bellamare present the report to the United Nations Security Council at the appropriate time to exert maximum pressure on the Assad regime in negotiations for his resignation (or possible ouster) from the Presidency of Syria. As relevant to all international laws, and treaties governing Rule of Law, the use of force, and the extradition of those held as property of the International Criminal Court, as expressly stated.

I know that these are steps which the court may in fact take regardless of the political considerations. However due to the nature of such rogue régimes as the Syrians. And their deep and close connections to the formerly dictatorial Libyan régime, as well as the delayed nature as such of the conclusion of the formerly incumbent régime therein, it serves the purpose of the court to be particularly pointed in there rebuke of such an element on the World Stage, regardless of the political consequences of doing as such, in my recommendation to the jury. 

And although both of these crimes of international terrorism are absolutely horrible, and dangerously heinous, the perpetrators have both been able to elude justice for decades at a time. And though while Moammar Gaddafi was held responsible for his crimes, shortly after the Civil War in his country broke out, in 2011, Assad has, as of this date, been able to elude justice.

A Potential Pathway, to a Peaceful Solution, to the Middle East, and Nuclear Crisis with Iran

Iran has a very difficult time ahead. The bringing back of U.S. sanctions will direct Iran’s economy into recession. The persistence in the Nuclear Program has damaged seriously, the economy of Iran, as the country is isolated from Global Commerce, by United States Sanctions. Besides that, Iran has all the resources, both Natural, Intellectual, as well as Geopolitical. That an economy needs, to develop a much more significant role, in the International Arena. The Country will never reach Great Wealth, or true Great Power Status, in the Near East, or Middle East, or the World for that matter. While isolated from the West, and under United States Sanction.

An order to ameliorate this, the first step should be to recognize, and accept the existence of Israel, as a Nation that has the right to exist. And stop supporting, and giving aid, to Terrorists Groups. Such as Hizbollah, and Hamas.

Secondly, the Covert Nuclear Program has evolved into other forms of energy exploitation, as wind, solar and other forms of energy have also prevailed. The Iranian Nation could become an example to the World, as it develops new and efficient forms of Energy, with respect to the Environment. There will be always the opposition of the United States to the Nuclear Program. And it has delayed the development of the Country, and the well being of its people, that have suffered terribly with these societal, and economic barriers.

Iran is in a difficut situation, between its peoples stated desire to integrate into the West’s Global Economic Prosperity.  And the persistence of a Revolutionary Ideology, led by Ayatollah Khamenei. In which opposition to the West, and denial of Israel’s existence, constitute core elements of the Islamic Republic’s identity. These contradictions, avoid the development of a Foreign Policy, accordingly with Iran’s National interests. The people of Iran want peace and progress, an order to make possible their own economic, and societal progress. Opposition to the West by their leadership. And development by their Radical, and Ideological Government of Covert Nuclear Techonologies, and their Possible Military Dimensions (PMD). Will never allow them to achieve these goals. There must be a renouncing of the Foreign Policy of exportation of the Revolution, vis a vis, violence. And more of a focus on development within the borders of the Country, and Peace with the West, and Isael. Leaving behind the Possible Military Dimensions of their indigenous Nuclear Program. And looking forward, for new kinds of Energy, and opening their Society, and Economy, allowing them to renew, and strengthen, their relationship with the West, and other Countries.

After forty years of the Islamic Revolution, it is evident the failure in promoting wealth, and prosperity, for different social groups, such as teachers, the rural poor, retirees and bus drivers, among others. Has brought a deleterious effect to their economic prosperity. And societal well-being.

My Proposal is this. The Introduction of the Constitution of Iran, States That: “The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran is a Declaration of the Social, Cultural, Political, and Economic Foundations of the Iranian Society. Based on Islamic Principles, and Norms, that Reflect the Heartfelt Desire, of the Islamic Community. These Fundamental Desires, are Elaborated, in the Qualities of the Great Islamic Revolution of Iran, and the Revolutionary Process of the Muslim People, from the Beginning to the Victory. Principles which were Crystallized through the Decisive and Strong Slogans of All Segments of Society. Now at the Dawn of This Great Victory, our Nation Longs, Wholeheartedly, to Realize This Demand”.

The policy of developing covert Nuclear Technology for the purposes of Possible Military Dimensions, and recognizing the right of Israel to exist, is the de facto norm, for any upstart peace process which may in fact ensue. Should their be a leadership change in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Or if their is to be a de facto cessation of hostilities, as with the proposal of a Peaceful Religion, as the Islamic State, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, have stated as striving for, as a state of being. The mentioned introduction to their Constitution, should instead be changed to say “Iran is a Peaceful Republic of Islamic People, that Exports Peace and New Technologies to Bring less suffering, to the Whole Humanity.”

Accordingly in Article 14 of the Constitution: “In accordance with the Sacred Verses of the Holy Quran; (“God does not forbid you to deal kindly, and justly, with those who have not fought against you, because of your religion, and who have not expelled you from your homes [60:8])”. The Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and all Muslims are duty-bound to Treat Non-Muslims in Conformity with Ethical Norms and the Principles of Islamic Justice and Equity, and to Respect their Human Rights. This Principle, Applies to All Who Refrain From Engaging in Conspiracy, or Activity, against Islam, and the Islamic Republic of Iran”.

Recognizing the State of Israel, in my opinion, and as I mention. Fulfills the Will of the Command of Article 14 of the Constitution as it Mentions the Respect of Other Peoples, Religion, and the Right to Exist.

The Solution, is to Understand Islamic Law, and Sharia, as being Consistent, with International Human Rights, Norms, and with Liberal Economic Policies.

The Country needs a Constitutional Reform, an order to Put Away Clauses Incompatible with Iran’s Modernisation, and Integration, with the World, writ large. This Should be Implemented, and Preceded by a Referendum, ex vi Article 59, of the Constitution, and a Subsequent Constitutional Reform. 

At the time It had been reported that Iran’s proposal has been accepted by the international community. In part the proposal forces Iran to discontinue certain parts of its nuclear program and allow outside international observers to monitor the partial dismantlement. In return the west will relax some of the crippling sanctions against Iran that forced them to the negotiating table in the first place. Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed his disgust with the proposal, reportedly, and urges the U.S. to reject the current deal as is.[1] This proposal; the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Agreement, and its future, is the most urgent issue facing Iran for the short term, as well as the long-term future.

Personally, I think that Iran is approaching these continuing JCPoA negotiations in good faith, but I think that the urgency on their side is not there. After all there were negotiations about a range of topics including the nuclear program back in 2007. I believe that after the accord this is really it for Iran. We have reached a fork in the road and its Iran’s path to choose.

They can option one: agree that their nuclear program is not going down a path that is for peaceful purposes and give up their quest for nuclear weapons. This will allow for a freer and safer Middle East that will be less antagonizing and more cooperative with one another.[2]

Or option two: go down a path that is not conducive to peace and prosperity for either the Iranian people or the Middle East in general. This will cause much suspicion amongst the allies of the U.S. and much consternation for the people of Iran. The results could be catastrophic for Iran and would put them in a position where Iran as it exists now may not exist in the future.[3]

The choice is Iran’s and Iran’s alone.[4] They must understand that this is not the beginning of a process but rather an end to a very long and convoluted dispute. The talks that were held in Geneva are meant to end the conversation over Iran’s nuclear program, not prolong a process that in their minds may just be beginning. [5]  The past decade has revealed that stability is only attained when the U.S. speaks not only to its friends but to its enemies as well. In the case of Iran, this is especially true. The talks which were held in Geneva, for the U.S., represent the ending culmination of a process that has taken at least six presidents to conclude. Again, the choice going forward is Iran’s, and Iran’s alone. 


[1] Netanyahu claims Iran lied about nuclear program, Politico.com, Quint, Forgey, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/30/netanyahu-iran-documents-559987, Accessed On: 06/25/19

[2] Obama’s Hidden Iran Deal Giveaway, Politico.com, Josh, Meyer, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/24/obama-iran-nuclear-deal-prisoner-release-236966, Accessed On: 06/25/19

[3] Pompeo threats Iran with “Strongest Sanctions in History”, Politico.com, Louis, Nelson, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/mike-pompeo-iran-sanctions-600922, Accessed On: 06/25/19

[4] Iran’s Supreme Leader Endorses Nuclear Deal, Politico.com, Gass, Nick, https://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-nuclear-214992, Accessed On: 06/25/19

[5] Ex-Diplomats Urge Ratification of Iran Deal, Politico.com, Terry, Mucahy, https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/iran-deal-diplomats-letter-ratification-120648, Accessed On: 06/25/19

A Letter to the Honorable Governor Gavin Newsom for consideration for appointment to the Senate of the United States of America for the Great State of California

To The Honorable Governor Gavin Newsom,

Dear Governor Newsom,

Hello, my name is Kevin Michael Miller, and I’m currently a resident of Illinois, residing in the Gurnee-Waukegan area. I’m writing because I would like to be considered for appointment to the United States Senate, representing the great state of California, my former state of residency.

After moving to California in the Summer of 2003, and pursuing a career in film and television, I was able to successfully have an award winning manuscript which I wrote in my teacher, Michael Mann relative, Johnathon Mann’s class, for what would become known as, the Stanley Kubrick directed film, “Eyes Wide Shut”.

After having this initial success, however, I decided, after continuing my studies in Political, and Social Philosophy, to pursue a career in Politics, foregoing any further encumbrances, to what could have been, and could still become, a flourishing acting, television, and film career.

My movie star good looks, are belied by my keen intellect, intelligible, though southern (I originally hail from Tampa, Florida) vernacular, and the character which has carried me through some of the nations most pressing, and arduous times. Particularly for my generation. As Someone who was born in 1984, I’ve witnessed the great recession, the great pandemic, the great climate change, and everything great in between.

I won’t tarry long with my request. I’m requesting that I be appointed to the seat which is currently vacated by Senator Dianne Feinstein, the longest serving senator from the San Francisco Bay Area. Though a Republican, I think my appointment would serve several fold for you, and your erstwhile agenda, in Californian, as well as Floridian, and the Nations Politics.

By appointing a well-regarded, and former well known Mouseketeer to the United States Senate. You, and I together would bring many constituencies together, an order to bring about the greatest good for all of Californians, and indeed the fifth largest economy in the World. I feel that by highlighting my exemplary conduct, which can be found on my blog at: kevinspolitics.com, as well as my Instagram feed, which has over 100k thousand, followers.

I think that we, me, and you, can work together before the American people, an order to make California, truly one of the most beautiful, safest, and most prosperous states in the Union. I recently posted on my blog a copy of a letter which I sent to Dianne Feinstein, and I urge you to look up the contents on it, on my website kevinspolitics.com, for any additional information about my history, and potential which you may need.

I look forward to hearing back from you, and I look forward to working with you, an order to make with the Senate, and Congress; The United States, and especially California, truly the most prosperous land that has ever existed.

Thank You, and I look forward to hearing from you about this exciting opportunity.

Sincerely,

Kevin Michael Miller

www.kevinspolitics.com 

Considering the beginning of a US-Russian-Sino period of contestation for Hegemony, and Dominance

military parade in city
Photo by Дмитрий Трепольский on Pexels.com

For its part America must wade into these difficult times with caution and a combination of carrots and sticks for all parties involved. This has already been shown with the heavy handedness that the administration has rebuked countries such as Russia, and North Korea with sanctions targeting their elite.

Beijing’s increasing power and influence in Asia, and the arguably growing danger of a serious crisis emerging in the near to medium-term over volatile issues such as Taiwan, North Korea, and several territorial disputes along China’s borders.[1]  

America must stand strong against possible aggression from all parties named, response to crises on periphery more important than at first observed, response to events crucial, must regain global respect for America, leaving the big wars for the rest while we prepare for the inevitable big test for our country, prepare for counterpoised organizations to the United States’ New World Order, do not let others dictate American narrative, be prepared for parts of the world to be hostile to the U.S. for the long term, prepare for war but don’t initiate it.

So long as U.S. maintains moral high ground domino effect is obsolete much as we saw in the 1980’s with Russia in Afghanistan.

We should, however, prepare for large parts of Asia, and Africa to be in world conflict which will be Sino-Soviet in nature and will have absolutely nothing to do with the United States.

China views itself as an aspiring yet nonaggressive great power, increasingly confident yet also acutely sensitive to domestic and external challenges to its stability and status. China’s leaders, and many ordinary Chinese citizens, possess a strong memory of the nation’s supposed historical victimization and manipulation at the hands of stronger powers. Thus, they are prepared to go to significant lengths to avoid the appearance of being weak and “giving-in” to great power pressures, or of engaging in predatory or manipulative behavior themselves. Chinese leaders also evince a very strong commitment to specific basic principles and core interests, especially those principles and interests associated with the defense of China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, both of which are related closely to national dignity. This viewpoint is apparently also shared by many ordinary Chinese citizens.[2]

North Korea is a victim of their own system; toxic alliances such as Syria, and possibly China will be a negative mitigating effect on North Korea as a whole. If there is no rapprochement with South Korea there could be much suffering in North Korea and eventual undoing from Sino-Soviet war as they are forced to choose sides through coercion from both the Chinese and Russians. Expect for trend of celebrities engaging in politics to continue (think North Korea); expect mostly celebrities from Hollywood, and the American and European Political intelligentsia, to be disgruntled by new administration in U.S., will take to spying and openly soliciting foreign governments (besides North Korea) with so-called expertise a la Edward Snowden, should not be a problem so long as U.S. has positive narrative.

            In the end it will ultimately be up to America to chart its own destiny. We can be confrontational and get caught up in the Sino-Soviet sphere of conflict. Or we can take the high road and refuse to give into Russian, and Sino intransigence while simultaneously solving some of the world’s most dangerous issues such as the North Korean Question, Pakistani-Indian relations, and the Middle East.

By not Kowtowing to pressures from either the Russian’s and their neo-imperial ambitions, or the ascendancy of a less than peaceful China, America can act as a beacon of light and a counter weight to these two very real, and significant second tier powers whose Hegemonic designs will eventually lead them to confrontation.

I would like to end with a quote from a paper Robert Jervis wrote for World Politics in 1978:

“The security dilemma is at its most vicious when commitments, strategy, or technology dictate that the only route to security lies through expansion. Status-quo powers must then act like aggressors; the fact that they would gladly agree to forego the opportunity for expansion in return for guarantees for their security has no implications for their behavior. Even if expansion is not sought as a goal in itself, there will be quick and drastic changes in the distribution of territory and influence.”[3]

In the Director of National Intelligence’s Global Trends 2030 Report the idea of relative U.S. decline is noted. Indeed it states “The replacement of the United States by another global power and erection of a new international order seems the least likely outcome…” And goes on to say: “The emerging powers are eager to take their place at the top table of key multilateral institutions such as UN, IMF, and World Bank, but they do not espouse any competing vision. Although ambivalent and even resentful of the US-led international order, they have benefited from it and are more interested in continuing their economic development and political consolidation than contesting US leadership. In addition, the emerging powers are not a bloc; thus they do not have any unitary alternative vision. Their perspectives—even China’s—are more keyed to shaping regional structures.”[4]

This likelihood is the precedent that I cite for my reasoning as to why I foresee a U.S. that is still relatively much more powerful than either China, or Russia, but is unable to control their actions any longer due to the rise in technological prowess, as well as military advancements.

When the time comes where Russia, and China begin to build multilateral institutions for their exclusive benefit (as is already the case), and they feel that they are no longer subject to the global political and economic institutions of the status quo Global Order.

This is when we can begin to see the unraveling of regions in which you see the aforementioned states’ dominance is most felt.

This unraveling could entail anything from a virtual wall of fact distortion placed by the dominating state over itself and any cooperative satellites; to a physical travel restriction by these states against U.S. allied countries, similar to the iron curtain during the cold war; to the onset of war, as we’ve seen in Ukraine, between Russia, it’s satellites, and China, and its satellites.

With the United States playing the role of mediator between the two, while unable to travel to those countries in the world due to the enactment of trade, cultural, and travel barriers between the warring factions, and the United States and its allies.    

In a September 17th, 2015 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Admiral Harry Harris was asked  by Senator Thom Tillis, (R – NC), about the time at which the United States’ qualitative advantage, in a “unfair fight” would be matched or exceeded, by the Peoples Republic of China’s quantitative advantage. In the hearing Admiral Harris said that they would have capability, assuming that the United States continued on its current trajectory, sometime in “The mid-twenty-twenties.”[5]

This assertion plays into the ideas that Robert Jervis has previously postulated and that I bring up here in relation to China, and Russia, when I say that once they no longer have anything to fear, there is the possibility of real trouble in whatever parts of the world that China and Russia consider to be in their de facto sphere of influence.

This is something that will surely become a test to the American Administration at the time as China would use its economic influence to foment revolt, while Russia can jump into the fray and militarize further conflicts which may have seemed at first to require only a deft hand at crisis management.

In fact we are able to see this panoply of more options available to Russia and China as we have seen China Militarize the South China Sea, and Russia use its military advancements to invade Ukraine, and to support the Assad regime in Syria by providing military material, knowhow, and placing boots on the ground. These extra judicial steps have been taken; China by claiming territorial rights over international waters; and Russia, inviting itself to Syria under the guise of the war on terrorism.

This is only the beginning of something that has the potential to become much more serious, namely, a global confrontation between the east and the west. All hope is not lost though for the United States, we were able to successfully find hunt and kill Osama Bin Laden, we have limited our role in Iraq, and we were able to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2021.

So then what role can the United States play in this increasingly more dangerous security paradigm: Cautious and Prudent.

We as a nation cannot allow ourselves to be caught in the trap of mission creep and further conflict management issues, namely war.

We must buttress our moral consistency for this long hard slog that we could potentially see ourselves going through.

We must be vigilant and be able to project strength. This means that we cannot be tied down in a recurring litany of what some might call small wars.

But we also can’t get lost in the abyss of a large conflagration.

We must on the one hand protect our allies, and project strength.

While on the other hand we cannot and will not allow ourselves to be manipulated by Chinese, and Russian Hawks, and Generals.

This will not be easy and will take an American Administration that has the intellectual knowhow and political savvy requisite to deal with these emerging threats.

Who or what this Administration will look like, this author will leave up to the American public to decide. 


[1] CHINESE NATIONAL SECURITY DECISIONMAKING UNDER STRESS, Edited by Andrew Scobell Larry M. Wortzel, CHINESE CRISIS MANAGEMENT: FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS, TENTATIVE OBSERVATIONS, AND QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE, Michael D. Swaine, p.5, September 2005

[2] CHINESE NATIONAL SECURITY DECISIONMAKING UNDER STRESS, Edited by Andrew Scobell Larry M. Wortzel, CHINESE CRISIS MANAGEMENT: FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS, TENTATIVE OBSERVATIONS, AND QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE, Michael D. Swaine, p.16, September 2005

[3] Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma, Robert Jervis, Pg. 187, http://www.jstor.org/stable/2009958?origin=JSTOR-pdf, 1978 Princeton University Press

[4] DNI.Gov, Office of The Director of National Intelligence, “Global Trends: 2030: Alternative Worlds”,   http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/global-trends-2030, Accessed September 15th, 2015  

[5] C-SPAN.org, Admiral Harry Harris, “Hearing on Maritime Security Strategy in the Asia-Pacific”, http://www.c-span.org/video/?328185-1/hearing-us-maritime-security-strategy-asiapacific, Accessed September 17th, 2015

The Attacks of September 11th and its Aftermath

The Attacks of September 11th and the Aftermath

The attacks of September 11th were a grievous wound inflicted upon the moral, and intellectual psyche of the United States, and its government. It was incumbent going forward, for the United States to take the fight to the terrorist. That meant preempting the threat of violent extremism before it foments into violence. This also meant bringing together communities, both here, and online, that these ideologies thrive in, as well as faith leaders, an order to prevent the radicalization process before it becomes a threat to the United States. Also recommended was the bringing together of friends and allies abroad to combat the threat of extremism no matter where it is, particularly in Western Europe.  

Background

  On September 11th, 2001 Hijackers, under the direction of Osama Bin Laden, and his terrorist network of affiliates, known as Al-Qaeda, flew planes into the World Trade Center, and the Pentagon, in a deliberate act of terror. This attack, which is now known as 9/11, was one of the most brutal, and violent attacks in American history. This threat, which emanates from Afghanistan, but has its roots in the Middle East, is of the highest concern to the American Government, and has necessitated the actions below which were explicated in the 9/11 commission report to take place immediately following the attacks on our homeland.[1]


[1] Commission Report to Congress and the President of the United States of America Concerning the Events of 9/11, Senator George P. Keane, 9/11 Commission, Originally Published: July 22nd, 2004

Recommendations For Government and Law Enforcement

  An order to combat the rising tide of radicalism both here in the United States and abroad, it was required for the United States to have a robust response that synthesizes all facets of the United States Government, and includes cooperation, and contributions from our allies, both here and abroad.

The most pressing matter that was of concern immediately following the attacks of 9/11, was the securing of the homeland from threats both here and abroad. This meant reviewing National Security Agency wiretaps, and surveillance records for any possible plots which may exist here at home, and also any plots which are fomenting abroad. The next response was to make sure that Federal, State, and Local law enforcement had the resources to go after the people who perpetrated these attacks on the homeland. This meant that they needed to be able to train and recruit more law enforcement resources, and also be able to conduct surveillance activities on potential sleeper cells which may have existed here in the United States. This also meant that all vulnerable monuments and facilities needed to be fortified with existing law enforcement assets, and this also meant that Congress needed to pass legislation an order to provide the legal cover that these agencies needed an order to conduct surveillance and roving wiretaps on potential suspects both here, and abroad.

As for our friends and allies they needed to be able to likewise do the same, and in addition, be able to begin actively monitoring communities that may be hotbeds of radicalization, but also “soft targets”, as well as “hard targets” which may have been vulnerable to attack from individuals who seek to do harm to these countries. This pooling of resources, and coordination had to be done at the highest levels of American Government, as well as in friendly countries abroad, especially Western Europe.

The next thing which needed to be done is that we the American People had to take the fight to directly to the terrorist themselves, this meant, invariably that we anticipated military, as well geo-political actions which will necessitate the complete abolishment of the Taliban, and their theocratic government in Afghanistan. This attack, which was perpetrated on our country, and countrymen is regarded as one of the most violent events in American History, and it could not go unpunished.

The people who acted to do harm to this country before 9/11, must be brought to justice. That is why it was recommended to the President that he plan for, and prepare for the invasion of the country of Afghanistan. The mission critical was to defeat the Taliban, by driving them out of Kabul, the capital, and bringing the terrorist masterminds who executed this attack to justice.  

Recommendations For Internet Communications

   As for communications on the internet and social media, it was necessary to monitor these lines of communication, with the assistance of these companies, and to bring those who would plot to do harm to our country to justice.[1]


[1] 9/11 Commission Report, 9/11 Commission, 2004, https://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf, Accessed On: 3/18/2023

Recommendations for Private Sector Vulnerable Communities, and Communities of Faith

  Maintaining a strong line of communication with communities of faith in this country, particularly in vulnerable communities, and bringing them into the process of protecting this country was essential to the maintenance of peace, and prosperity throughout the entire world. It was also important for actors in the private sector to be onboard with these recommendations an order to ensure their continual support for the government’s actions as we prepared to take on a threat which knows no national boundaries, and has inflicted a grave wound on our moral, and national psyche. This we hoped to do in the coming months, and years of this international conflict. 

Wahhabism and Al-Qaeda

  Radical Islam is a form of Islam which has its roots in the Wahhabist faith. Though the Rulers of Saudi Arabia, the house of Saud, follow its core tenants, they have sworn off any terrorist financing, or terror activity. This does not extend however to their charitable activities that seek to promote Wahhabism around the World through the building of Mosque, and Madrassas or Religious Schools. Al-Qaeda is an offshoot of this Wahhabist school of thought in Islam, and seeks to remove irreligious Arab governments, as well as what it views as the Great Satan (e.g., Israel, and The United States) from Arab Lands through a Jihad, or Holy War. Individuals are radicalized for certain reasons, and each one is different. These individuals often come from marginalized parts of society, and often preach adherence to Islam, but conduct themselves in a way which is antithetical to the teachings of Islam. There is no way to look at someone and tell that they are a terrorist or not. The most successful terrorist often come from wealthy, and privileged backgrounds that are usually not in keeping with traditional Islamic Teachings.  

The Historic Origins of Radical Islamic Fundamentalism

  The Radical Islamic Ideology that we know today as Islamic Fundamentalism has its roots in the sayings and teachings of Radical Saudi Arabian Scholars who were concerned with what they saw as encroachments on Arab Lands, and holy sites by Foreign Invaders, and later by what was considered by them an illegitimate Jewish state in Arab, and Palestinian lands. This conscious, and radical viewpoint has its roots in the Wahhabist teachings of 17th century custodians of the holy sites in and around what is today known as Saudi Arabia.

The rise of this non-secular Islamic sect of Islam, can be traced almost precisely with the house of Saud, and its eventual establishment of a monarchy on the Arabian Peninsula in the early 20th century. The house of Saud, its rise, and establishment therefore, cannot be divorced from the Wahhabist clerics whom they swept into power with up to this date. This arrangement, of the House of Saud adhering to the Wahhabist faith, and being the chief custodians of the Kabbah, the holy sites in Mecca, and Medina, and overlords of the secular parts of society, while the clerics maintain a monopoly on religious life, was established almost at the beginning of the House of Saud’s families founding in the 17th century.

So, while the house of Saud is tied to a fanatical religious cult, its behavior is not fully in lockstep with the teachings of some of the more modern fanatical preachers in the Wahhabist faith. Though the Rulers of Saudi Arabia, the house of Saud, follow its core tenants, they have sworn off any terrorist financing, or terror activity. This does not extend however to their charitable activities that seek to promote Wahhabism around the World through the building of Mosque, and Madrassas or Religious Schools.

This divorce from the reality of the Saudi Royal Families lifestyle, and the Wahhabist religion that they claim to practice, goes back for at least the last 60 years, when the Founder of Saudi Arabia, King Saud, declared his family as the only legitimate custodians of the Kabbah, the holy mosque in Medina, and the other spiritual, and Islamic Holy Sites in and around Mecca, and the rest of Saudi Arabia.     

Key Elements of Al-Qaeda’s Ideology

  Al-Qaeda on the other hand finds its philosophical roots in an even more virulent strain of Wahhabism by a preacher that advocated for the destruction of all infidels, and their strong holds around the World called Qutbism. Qutbism which would be co-opted by Al Qaeda’s (Literally “The Base”) leader, and 9/11 mastermind Usama Bin Laden. Bin Laden who was a Freedom Fighter during the Afghanistan War in the 1980’s, along with Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri was almost entirely responsible for the creation of Al-Qaeda, from a Freedom Fighter recruitment, and fundraising apparatus, to one of the most successful terrorist organizations in the history of man.

This duopoly which did not always exist peacefully, Dr. Zawahiri, and Usama Bin Laden, played to the strengths of both men. Where Usama could be shy and reserved, yet charismatic, preferring rather to fund raise, and carry out attacks, while inspiring the masses with critiques of Arab Governments, and calling for the destruction of Israel; Zawahiri could be reserved to, but was easily regarded as the philosophical underpinnings of the organization, and one of the most inspiring terrorist leaders to come out of the Muslim Brotherhood, and its existential protest against the Al-Mubarak regime. This Al-Qaeda did with a tight leadership structure which rarely changed, and a gift for disrupting world events with opportune strikes on what Usama Bin Laden would refer to as the weapons of Satan (Israel) and the Infidels.

Its telling to note that Al-Qaeda under the leadership of Usama and Zawahiri throughout the early years of the Islamic terrorist organizations founding, never struck in Europe, or European Capitals, instead deciding to focus their energies on what they saw as the main threats to Arab domination of Middle Eastern lands, Israel, and the United States. This they did to great effect with several bombings; at the World Trade Center, USS Cole, Kenya, and Tanzania, as well as the bombings at Oklahoma City, and the events of and leading up to 9/11. It’s been said that Osama Bin Laden is one of the most prolific mass murderers in all of history, for his execution of the attacks on 9/11, and that these attacks, form the core teachings and ideology of Al-Qaeda, this is almost certainly true, and as an outsider should help you to understand exactly what the motivations of the group, namely the exclusion, domination, dismemberment of any non-Arab country, which seeks to impinge upon Arab lands, and their sacred sites.

This belief that no non-Arab should use Arab lands to attack other Arab countries emanates from the period immediately after the end of the Cold War, and the United States basing of troops in Saudi Arabia, an order to remove Saddam Hussein from Kuwait during what is known as the First Gulf War. After this successful “incursion” on Arab lands Osama issued what is known as a fatwa, or religious decree, which expressly prohibited the Saudi Royal Family from participating in the Hajj pilgrimage that year, and called for the destruction of the Saudi Royal Family, Israel, and the United States.

This Fatwa was widely received in the Middle East, and directly led to the successful creation of Al-Qaeda as a terrorist organization, and network.  

Why Individuals Radicalize to Violence

  As for the radicalizing of individuals, it is not known precisely what circumstances lead to the radicalization of individuals. For those who come from Majority Muslim countries, it could be something as simple as the family that you come from, or your adherence to a certain teaching within your faith. But for others, and especially Westerners, the radicalization process can take many paths. Sometimes a crisis of culture within the individual, and the realization of these radical teachings can inspire them to do tremendous damage to their own society or another, as quote “Lone Wolves”, or to travel to a battlefield to fight with a Holy Army as a Martyr. Other times, it depends on the type of friends they have and sometimes crucially how much money they have.

But there is no one set prototypical persona, or type of person that you should be looking out for. All the features that they require often times cannot be seen with the naked eye. Often times these individuals are outcast in a segment of society, or just society in general, and they have nothing better to do, or as stated earlier, fall into the wrong crowd and are radicalized by their friends.  

COVID-19 and the Threat of Islamic Extremism

  Since the attacks of 9/11, the death of Osama Bin Laden, the ongoing war with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or simply ISIS, the threat of Islamic Extremism continues to emanate primarily from the Middle East, Near East, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, the Maghreb, and South Asia, though not without evidence of western plots and cells. The most pressing threat which emanates from these lands, is of course the threat which is still being eradicated in ISIS, but also a number of philosophical offshoots, and even sister organizations, which have taken the name of the Caliphate, but have chosen altogether more prolific, and productive means of recruitment, and dynamism.

This of course means that the aforementioned policies, and tactics which the western intelligence agencies, as well as law enforcement sources, have taken, will be tested in new, and often times original ways, which have never been seen, or confronted before. And while I don’t have the ability to discern precisely what may be attempted. Needless to say, the ways in which they will try to exploit the very links, and couplings which make the modern world go round, will indeed be ingenious.

Therefore, I submit that the most pressing plots that will become the most strenuous to our systems of checks and balances, will revolve around the use of airborne, or even seaborne transportation, an order to defeat our security mechanisms, and protocols. This will include a replay of the Richard Reid shoe bomber attacks, as well as the inkjet cartridges that are becoming more superfluous. It could include the use of planted doubles that will expedite the defeating of the security, as well as the use of social media, and influencer personalities, as a decoy, or disguise.

This state of affairs may be attenuated, depending on the degree of severity with which it is able to be pulled off with. Nevertheless, the appropriate law enforcement sources, should remain diligent, and ready to apprehend any, and all subjects. And intelligence sources should be fully exploited, including signals intelligence over the internet, and CB, and Ham Radios, which are becoming increasingly popular with a younger generation.

The use of children, or even unassuming, and conformist bystanders, and individuals who may even belong to the same radical sect, or segment of society. Whatever the case may be, the proper authorities should be prepared to deal with whatever may come, and the funding, and maintenance, of these strands of intelligence collection, and human intelligence cannot be overstated.  

The Invasion of Mosul

When looking at the map of Mosul and the projected enemies position in the western part of town (i.e. the part of town that is separated by the Tigris River) it becomes apparent that they have placed themselves in a strategically unimpressive position. The first thing that needs to be asked is what direction should we approach the city from. The almost universal opinion in this regard is to approach Mosul from the North Highway that comes from Dahūk.

Once this has been accomplished a foothold should then be gained in the center of the area that is bordered by Mosul University in the North-East, Nineveh Woods to the North-West, the Tigris River to the South-West, and the Nahr Khamusr River to the East and South-East.

After this has been completed then deploying artillery as indicated by the Blue box at the waypoint presently described. This will allow for the Iraqi Army to defend itself by raining artillery shells on the enemy in the western portion of town an order to soften up their defenses.

The next thing that needs to happen is the offensive on the enemies position in the Western part of town. You will need to coordinate a two pronged strategy which i’m calling the Fork and Left Hook. The fork is the forces that will be centered in the western part of the staging ground waypoint. This force will be used to feign an attack on the bridges that connect the Eastern, and Western parts of the city.

The Left Hook Portion is the main part of the assault. This Left Hook will be positioned at night over the Tigris and into the Western part of Mosul City where the Forest is present. The trees will give cover, and the river will act as a natural land barrier to prevent from being flanked from behind.

After this is completed the Fork portion of the troop regiment will need to engage the enemy across the river. While they are engaging the enemy the Left Hook will then (at the appropriate time) need to swoop in and catch the enemy off guard on their northern or left flank. The timing and secrecy of these operations will be critical to success.

After the enemy has been routed then the next objective should be to take the Airport and from their it is just a matter of outflanking the enemy until they are no longer in the city limits of Mosul.

Power Point of the Invasion of Mosul, Iraq

Contingency Planning: Battle of Ar-Raqqa

When it comes to ISIS in the Middle East anything is possible as evidenced by the sheer amount of variables in play in not only Syria, but Iraq as well. It is important to be well prepared for anything which might happen in the future that we aren’t already. The following is a powerpoint presentation that covers the scenario of ISIS becoming such a dominant force on the battlefield that the U.S. is forced to send in ground troops en masse. This presentation is a what if scenario of what the battle for ar-Raqqa would look like and require to be successful. Ar-Raqqa Slides Power Point PDF