The creator of this paper, after attempting to find the most cost efficient take out order, and order substitution delivery service. And after discovering the ability with the Chase Sapphire Preferred Credit Card. To be able to order, with little to no additional delivery charge, and discounted surcharge, on all Chase Sapphire approved orders, on the Door Dash, a la Uber Eats, Meal Delivery Platform. This, being one of many experiences, which the author has had with the meal delivery service. Including from its earliest worldwide adoption, and service fee, and surcharge model. Led the author, to introduce a Meal Delivery Index, entitled “The Uber Eats Index”. This index includes within his research for this paper, information compiled from The Department of Revenue, at the City Hall of Chicago. As well as the Mayor’s official budget, for the City of Los Angeles.

By using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE). I was able to, by combining the forecasted revenues, as well as the forecasted delivery charges, and sales tax increases, the adjusted value of a non-generic take out menu value meal. Which, if not delivered, in 2007 dollars, would have a nominal tax incentivized value of $15.00, minus the input from the delivery service. Which includes a proprietary Vector Auto Regression (VAR) based model. That incorporates the above stated variables. As well as a proprietary tax modeling equation, which is strictly defined to the Los Angeles Metro Area, and therefore California as a whole.

This non-descript large market, large share “Value Meal”, would inevitably begin to be offered as a delivery item, on the Uber Eats Platform, first in Los Angeles in 2007. And later on, the same platform, and others, in Chicago, and the surrounding Chicagoland Suburban Area. In the summer of 2016. This added value increase to the meals, in the Chicago market. Has been shown to not be adversely affected by higher delivery fees, and charges, due to the price of Oil, and Gas, as well as emerging issues, such as automated delivery driving methods, as well as reforms to the municipal, and state tax ordinances.

This nominal $15 meal, in 2007, which is exemplified in the Chicago market. Would have an end price for delivery, using a mean adjusted Vector Auto Regression, and due to the ongoing wars in Afghanistan, and Iraq, in the Los Angeles area, of nearly $43 dollars ($42.84).

The unfortunate discrepancy in data, between various restaurant’s in this era, and the data, which is publicly available. Taking into account, and along with the Mean adjusted pricing level for the Los Angeles Metro Area Market. Means that we can only guess at the true non-Uber Eats delivery price of the same meal to be about $23.15, or a 54% increase in the amount of money paid for the same amount of food, absent the delivery surge pricing.

As for the future pricing of the same “Value Meal”, which will heretofore, be assigned a nominal 2007 value of $15 USD, has, at 2016 levels, remained at a constant price on the Uber Eats Application throughout 2016 for the Los Angeles Market. Finally dropping in both 2017, and 2018, to a 2018 low of $32.92 USD. Before rising again, in 2019 to $33.55. Presumably due to an increase in competition, and competitive advantages, and cost efficiencies, which were adopted by competitors in the distribution, and meal delivery service app market.

By the end of the first year of the pandemic, in 2020, the presumed cost efficiencies which arose from the decrease in State Wide California Sales Taxes, as well as the stabilization of the meal delivery market in Los Angeles. As well as additional tax efficiencies which arose from the further stabilization of the Los Angeles County, City Wide Tax Code. Produced a return to the price levels that appeared in 2018, nearly two years before the start of the pandemic.

This decrease did not last throughout the inflationary period which followed the ensuing shutdown, and additional health safety measures, which were rigorously enforced in both metropolises, and food services markets of Los Angeles, as well as Chicago. Led to an increase throughout 2021, and up to the current period, to $34.02. From here were able to witness a discontinuity in the amount, and pricing of the nominal “Value Meal” which was originally priced in 2007 at $15 USD. This disaggregation, which has seen Meal Prices, steadily rise in Chicago throughout the same period, until finally in 2023, catching up to the Uber Eats Prices, that were cited as having begun in the Los Angeles Metro Area in 2021, of $34.02. And Have preceded until the end of 2023 for the same metropolitan area.

Looking Forward, by using our DSGE, and Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) Statistical analysis. Which takes into account the past pricing of Meals from Uber Eats, in both sample markets (Chicago, and Los Angeles). Along with past, and future tax provisions, which both preceded, and were following the pandemics beginnings. Were able to find a continuously correlating, and causal price correlation between both Los Angeles Uber Eats final delivery pricing. As well as Chicago’s own. With Chicago (Metro) expected to increase its Uber Eats final delivery pricing for 2024 for the nominal 2007 “Value Meal” to $36.10 USD. This is in contrast to Los Angeles and its metro area, which expects a marked decrease in its final Uber Eats delivery pricing to $30.72 USD. A nearly 11% decrease from its 2023 prices ($34.02).

This decrease in pricing, is more than likely owing to the stabilization in both California, as well as Los Angeles County, and Metro areas, municipal, and state taxes. As well as further cost efficiencies, and windfall profits, which occurred throughout the beginning of the pandemic.

The included chart shows the information contained above, outlining the price and price differences in Uber Eats, and its meal delivery platform.