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Iranian Nuclear Ambitions (2003-2024)

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Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. For the next 15 years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%. Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time.[1] A nuclear weapon uses a fissile material to cause a nuclear chain reaction. The most commonly used materials have been uranium 235 (U-235) and plutonium 239 (Pu-239). Both uranium 233 (U-233) and reactor-grade plutonium have also been used.[2][3][4]

With Separative Work Units Estimated to begin production of fissile material at about 35 SWU, the estimated amount of fissile material needed to produce one bomb is estimated to be about 30 kilograms, with perfect centrifuge production of such fissile material accomplished after the use of about 50,000 unique centrifuges.[5][6] This is thought to precipitate from the production of crude IR-1 centrifuges which have a Uranium Produced to Centrifuge Use Ratio of 0.0867% (Uranium: Centrifuge Ratio).[7] This is a certain disadvantage for any country which hopes to produce an indigenous supply of fissile material, for any illicit nuclear program, and its activities. This means that an order to produce the previously estimated Separative Work Units needed to attain 30 Kilograms of Low Enriched Uranium (LEU), the program in question would have to expend an inordinate number of centrifuges of the IR-1 grade, which would add up to something of the order of magnitude of at least 122,268,924 Centrifuges, again of the IR-1 generation, which is the crudest workable generation of centrifuges available.

It’s estimated that the Islamic Republic of Iran has about 19,500 of these installed in a cascading assay at any one time.[8] Numbers like these continue for some time when talking about the Uranium to Centrifuge Ratio for less crude centrifuge devices, IR-2, .15937%, topping out at 33,270,455 IR-2 Centrifuges alone an order to produce enough Uranium for one bomb (30 Kgs). IR-3, a respectable centrifuge technology that requires 9,053,185 to produce the same amount of fissile material, giving it a Uranium to Centrifuge Cannibalization Ratio of 0.292843%.

Amongst these lesser centrifuge technologies, it is presumed from testimony from inspectors, and reports from the IAEA, as well as intelligence agencies, that the maximum number of Centrifuges which can be installed at any one time is north of 15,000 per assay, for these centrifuge technologies alone.

This would explain the IR-1 Assay which has over 15,000 centrifuges installed (19,500).[9] 

While IR-4 has a Uranium to Centrifuge Ratio of 0.538099% Cannibalized, meaning that the number of centrifuges needed to produce the requisite amount of LEU fissile material drops considerably to 2,463,451. However, it’s thought that the Iranians only have 5,000 of the more high-tech IR-4 in existence.

But this number is up for discussion and it here posited by me, that the number of centrifuges which are currently put into production by Iran, number at least 10,000 total, with IR-3 being the most plentiful of them all. This means that by most estimates 7,800 may be the maximum declared allotment by the Ayatollah and his regime, but the figure varies accordingly due to the size of the program, meaning suspected undeclared facilities, and the scope and nature of the program as well.[10] After all, it was Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi Fedayeen, who were suspected of concealing what was in fact a defunct Nuclear Weapons Program, on trailers which were supposedly on mobile platforms throughout the desert in 2003.[11]

The number of centrifuges thought to be acquired by Iran, and their efficiency, therefore, begin to deviate from each other dramatically, after this. With highly advanced IR-5, and IR-6 Centrifuges collapsing to no greater than 1,000 for the foreseeable future, after implementation of the JCPOA, and even yet still Cannibalized Yields accelerating to only 1.8% with Centrifuges, and Centrifuges used, numbering in the hundreds of thousands.

The production of these centrifuges, and their capabilities was summed up in Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran, a 2019 book by Robert S. Litwak, from the Woodrow Wilson Center at Princeton University which sums up the state of the program, and the issues succinctly:

“Centrifuges are essential equipment for uranium enrichment, the multistage industrial process in which natural uranium is converted into special material capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction. Natural uranium occurs in two forms—U-238, making up 99 percent of the element, and the lighter U-235, accounting for less than 1 percent. But the latter is a fissionable isotope that emits energy when split. Uranium ore is crushed into a powder, refined, and then reconstituted into a solid form, known as “yellowcake.” The yellowcake is then superheated and transformed into a Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran: gas, uranium hexafluoride (UF6). That gas is passed through a centrifuge and spun at high speed, with the U-238 drawn to the periphery and extracted, while the lighter U-235 clusters in the center and is collected. The collected U-235 material is passed through a series of centrifuges, known as a cascade, with each successive pass-through increasing the percentage of U-235. Uranium for a nuclear reactor should be enriched to contain approximately 3 percent uranium-235, whereas weapons-grade uranium should ideally contain at least 90 percent. Iran developed indigenous facilities to support each phase of the uranium enrichment process: two uranium ore mines, whose reserves could produce 250-300 nuclear weapons, according to U.S. intelligence; a yellowcake production facility; a facility for Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz (aerial view) From Transformational to Transactional Diplomacy converting yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas in Esfahan; and two enrichment sites, Natantz and Fordow, with 19,000 centrifuges, of which some 10,000 were operational. They were predominantly the first-generation IR-1 model, although Iran had begun installing the more sophisticated IR-2 model, which is more reliable and estimated to have six times the output of IR1s. The industrial-scale Natanz site, located 200 miles south of Tehran, could potentially house 50,000 centrifuges. The Fordow enrichment site near Qom is too small to be Economically rational as part of a civil nuclear program and is invulnerable to a military strike because it is deeply buried. Those attributes, as well as its location on a Revolutionary Guard base, aroused concern that its intended purpose was to receive low-enriched uranium produced at Natanz for further enrichment to weapons-grade material.”[12]

Figure 10 Fick’s Equation, Courtesy of National Research Nuclear University (Russia), Nuclear Reactor Physics Basics, Yury Volkov (Instructor), Coursera.org, Accessed On: 2/25/2024

This extant, which was provided by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Public Policy, gives a clear and concise explanation of the basis for ongoing nuclear negotiations, which have currently reached an impasse, as of June 2021.

Add to that a resourceful, and diligent case study of the Ayatollah’s finances in Iran. And it’s estimated that he personally has accumulated over $US 350 Billion Dollars, in personal wealth, over the course of time since the signing of the JCPOA agreement, and the wars in both Syria, Yemen, as well as Gaza. This summation, the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Public Policy Extant, however, does not include the existence of undeclared sites, which may be yet smaller in scope, but could number in the tens or more. The exclusionary nature of the Iranian Nuclear Program, along with its undeclared assets, and facilities, is one of the historical hallmarks of covert nuclear programs around the world, and is what makes it so dangerous. It should be noted however that the main conduits of the Nuclear Program, the Uranium and Plutonium Milling Mines outside of the processing facilities, including Gchine, and Saghand, as per News reports, are no longer functioning, owing to the laborious processes the Iranians have gone through to produce Nuclear Fissile Materials, and the limited capabilities which they have been able to covertly develop, after its acquisition.[13] If true, this revelation should be of the utmost of issues which the Americans, and the other P5+1 interlocutors can use to leverage Iranian compliance with their nuclear program. As the lack of raw fissionable material, negates the programs efficacy for the purposes of exploiting current technologies for the development of Nuclear Fission Weapons. And the inclusion of sensitive monitoring equipment, such as cameras, and other positive scoring sensors, and devices, at these, and other mining, and milling technology sites, must be included in any further discussions of the renegotiation of the JCPOA, and its compliance regime.

Figure 11 CERN Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) Experiment at Light Hadron Collider #2, Cessy, France, Courtesy of the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN)

As for experimental centrifuges which Iran has under its command, the introduction of IR-6s, and IR-7’s was at first thought to completely transform the character and nature of the Iranian nuclear program, and the threat it poses. However, after initial analyses were conducted by western intelligence communities, using lasers pointed at the heat emanating from suspected nuclear sites, it was discovered that the Iranians are enriching at only a slightly more efficient level, and that the amount of these so-called experimental centrifuges must not number in less than 500 totals.

Nevertheless, when they are able to acquire these more advanced centrifuges, the Assay really only begin to decrease to so called super efficiencies at the IR-8 and above. That’s not to say that the amount of Enriched Uranium produced by these centrifuges is negligible, with Cannibalized Assays reported at 11.27%, and 20.71% Respectively, these technologies, should they ever fall into the Government of Iran’s Hands could precipitate another nuclear crisis.

And, while I suspect that the technology already exist. The added knowhow, such as Krytron Switching, and other light, and gas based, vaporous, diaphanous, vaporizing devices. Needed an order to perfect certain Nuclear Fission, and thus Weaponization technologies. I’ve concluded they may not have mastered the knowhow of.  

Figure 12 CERN Light Hadron Collider (b) (LHCb) ALICE Propulsion Experiments. (Image Courtesy of CERN)

Figure 13 CERN ALICE pPb Heavy Ion Collisions Experiments, Courtesy of the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN)

These numbers which are articulated in the above section on capabilities, do not negate the presence of current Iranian enrichment capabilities, indeed by the time the JCPOA negotiations began in 2015, it was already revealed by the Iranian side, that they possessed enough enriched Uranium to make at least five (5) nuclear weapons. The numbers on cannibalized arrays simply relate to the capabilities of their current centrifuge campaign for their Nuclear Weapons Program, and is indicative of the Iranian sides inability to progress past certain technological thresholds.       

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action

 

[2]  Holdren, John; Bunn, Matthew (1997). “Managing Military Uranium and Plutonium in the United States and the Former Soviet Union”. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment. 22: 403–496. doi: 10.1146/annurev.energy.22.1.403.

 

[3] Barnaby, Frank (5 March 2014). Barnaby; Holdstock, Douglas (eds.). Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Retrospect and Prospect. p. 25. ISBN 9781135209933

 

[4] Matthew; Holdren, John P. “Managing military uranium and plutonium in the United States and the Former Soviet Union” (PDF). pp. 403–409.

 

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separative_work_units

 

[6] “Explainer: How close is Iran to producing a nuclear bomb?”, Francois Murphy, Reuters.com, Found At: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-explainer/explainer-how-close-is-iran-to-producing-a-nuclear-bomb-idUSKBN2880NU

 

[7] This ratio is made by taking the amount of Uranium needed for feedstock and dividing it by the number of centrifuges used, an order to obtain 30 Kilograms of High Enriched Uranium. For actual numbers used see the Appendix.

 

[8] Explainer: How close is Iran to producing a nuclear bomb? François Murphy, Reuters.com, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-explainer/explainer-how-close-is-iran-to-producing-a-nuclear-bomb-idUSKBN2880NU

[9] Ibid.

 

[10] The Logic of Restoring Compliance With the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, Arms Control Association, Vol. 14, Issue 2, February 16th, 2022; Found At: https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2022-02/logic-restoring-compliance-2015-iran-nuclear-deal?emci=b29c911a-ad8e-ec11-a507-281878b83d8a&emdi=326f4403-378f-ec11-a507-281878b83d8a&ceid=15330559

 

[11] Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, with Addendums (Duelfer Report), Iraq Survey Group (ISG), Central Intelligence Agency, April 25th, 2005, found at: https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-DUELFERREPORT/, Accessed On: 02/16/2022

 

[12] Nuclear Crises with North Korea and Iran: From Transformational to Transactional Diplomacy, Pgs. 83-85, Robert S. Litwak, Princeton University Press, 2019

 

[13] Is Iran running out of yellowcake? By David Albright, Jacqueline Shire, and Paul Brannan, February 11, 2009, Institute for Science and International Security, Found At: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Iran_Yellowcake_11Feb2009.pdf, Accessed: 06/06/2021

African Affairs, East Asian Affairs, European Affairs, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Non-Proliferation Affairs, Political Theory, Russian Affairs, United Nations Diplomacy

Looking Ahead 2018: Putin’s Patience

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In an increasingly polarized World we find ourselves cautious, yet hopeful, deliberative, but also reticent. The events which will shape the upcoming year will revolve around two distinct narratives, in my opinion. The first of these is the administrations calculus concerning the Kim Jong-Un régime in North Korea, and the unforeseen consequences of policy both from former Administrations’ policy toward the régime, as well as the current administrations policy of confrontation toward the régime. Add to that the credible reports of illicit financing which the régime has procured through investments in bitcoin, as so-called cryptocurrency, and you have the makings of what could turn into a very serious year on the Korean Peninsula. The United States finds itself in a tough situation concerning the DPRK where it has to protect it’s allies and interest, while balancing provocative acts from the DPRK, while the DPRK pursues a crash program that is intended to end with their country armed with a nuclear tipped missile that can reach the United States. There’s not much as notes of optimism go in the press concerning this crisis and it seems that this pessimism is certainly warranted. However, as recent history has shown if there is anyone who can solve the current nuclear impasse on the Korean Peninsula it arguably is this Administration. Through some fit of fortune they have somehow always found a way. It has been like that almost from the very beginning, and seems intent on continuing…

As for events in Syria, it is presumed through numbers which I have been able to calculate that Syria can only survive up until the elections conclude in Russia in the middle of April 2018. After this point it is clear that Syria will officially be deemed a failed state by assumed Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is at this point that he will purposefully precipitate the collapse of the political system in Damascus, representing a clean break for Russia, from its entanglement in Syria. If the figures are calculated by one and your aware of the situation on the ground. It should come as no surprise that the régime in Damascus is woefully underfunded getting by on a shoe-string budget provided to it by Russia, Iran, and other proxies. However this too will soon be gone as it has already  become clear to the Russian President that he should cut his losses from the Syrian Civil War, and will through a bit of roguery first conceal his true intentions in Syria, convince Iran and other Syrian proxies that Russia is contributing the bulk of funds to Syria for the year, then convince Bashar al-Assad that the best place for him to store his savings from the war is in a Russian state-owned bank, then Vladimir Putin will secure his reelection for another term, then Putin will treacherously steal the Syrian treasury; while fooling Iran and other proxies into contributing the bulk into it, and finally precipitating the collapse of the Syrian government leaving a mess for the United States and the international community to clean up while focusing on his next project for both the near, and long-term. Putin desires only to recover as much in lost assets and cash as he can from the situation at this point. His main motivation in this situation is badly needed money. This is all presumed to happen in the first part of the year, with Russia precipitating Syria’s complete collapse around the 25th of April, or one week and one day after elections are held in Russia.

As for Putin and his adventurism in Ukraine it can only be surmised that the entire enterprise is a fiasco with short-medium(6-12 Months) term consequences for Russia geo-politically, and financially; as well as long-term(12+ Months) consequences for Russia financially, and geo-politically. The short-medium term political consequences consist of a rethink of the baltic strategy. This means no invasion of Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia in early 2018 for the Olympics as had been planned. This could also mean a lessening of bellicose behavior towards the Baltic states, as well as a realignment of troops on their borders. This also means the ceasing of hostilities in Ukraine. Fiscally in the short-medium term the Russian State will almost certainly have to precipitate the collapse of the government in Syria an order to recoup lost monies from Ukraine, Syria, and the lack of additional funding coming from the invasion of the Baltic.

In the long term geo-politically the consequences seem harder to anticipate, however one thing is for certain it will involve further pressure on the North Atlantic alliance in an attempt to recreate the boundaries of Czarist Russia. My best guess is a weakening of the régime in Armenia precipitating fortuitous oil and gas deals for Russian. Or a weakening of NATO’s presence in the Balkans through entreaties to Turkey, and an attempted overthrow of the régime in Kosovo. Putin could also finally turn west and go to Latin America an order to facilitate trade, and oil and gas deals between the two countries. Whatever he chooses he first must precipitate the collapse of the government in Syria and fool Bashar al-Assad beforehand an order to have the necessary funds available to carry out his next move. One note of optimism I can express is that i suspect that Bashar al-Assad has less money than Putin is counting on which could either precipitate erratic thinking on his part, in which case we see him attempting some of the things which he doesn’t have funding for in the Baltic. Or we could see him attempting some of the more long term projects as outlined above. Or we could see him turn inward and abandon any projects for short-medium term and focus on rebuilding Russian capital. Either way it looks like this year is shaping up to be one that Russia wants to make, one way or another, all about itself. Happy New Year and I hope you come to Kevin’s Politic’s Blog for all your Geo-Political Analysis needs.

Foreign Policy, Political Theory

The Value of U.S. Alliances in the 21st Century

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This is a live video feed of a Center for Strategic and International Studies Event which will discuss the future of NATO and the alliance in the 21st century. The Speakers will be:

Antony J. Blinken
Deputy Secretary of State, U.S. Department of State

Gen. Philip M. Breedlove (Ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. European Command; Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander – Europe (SACEUR)

Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia

Lisa Sawyer Samp
Senior Fellow, International Security Program, CSIS

Jeffrey Rathke
Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Europe Program, CSIS

It will begin promptly at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on 6/29/16

NATO In The 21st Century

Middle Eastern Affairs, Political Theory

Contingency Planning: Battle of Ar-Raqqa

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When it comes to ISIS in the Middle East anything is possible as evidenced by the sheer amount of variables in play in not only Syria, but Iraq as well. It is important to be well prepared for anything which might happen in the future that we aren’t already. The following is a powerpoint presentation that covers the scenario of ISIS becoming such a dominant force on the battlefield that the U.S. is forced to send in ground troops en masse. This presentation is a what if scenario of what the battle for ar-Raqqa would look like and require to be successful. Ar-Raqqa Slides Power Point PDF

East Asian Affairs, Political Theory

DPRK: North Korea Policy Suggestions 12/14/15

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  • current levels of troops in Korea should be reviewed though considering the circumstances they may have to subsist
  • diplomatically we should prepare at every possible angle for the sudden collapse of the government
  • the idea of resolving a situation such as that purely militarily is a non-starter
  • resolving the nuclear situation should be facilitated through diplomatic and military dialog between the U.S.-ROK and DPRK
  • it would be prudent to have intelligence sources in the DPRK before there is a resumption of deadly hostilities
  • Expect for Korea to collapse after sudden death of leader through accident
  • this situation will produce much leeway and room to work in as the situation attempts to resolve itself internally
  • having official or unofficial sources on the ground internally in Korea at the time will allow for a more stable situation
  • we cannot wait for the hour of his demise to come before we start considering our options of how to deal with the situation
  • with no apparent heir it may very well get worst before it gets better
  • having an open line of communications is therefore imperative for the U.S. government to have so that we may be open and frank with one another in times of crisis
  • this will prevent nuclear war
  • militarily we should be cognizant of the fact that any war against north Korea is defensive in nature
  • open hostility on their part should be met with swift and concrete actions that seek to prevent the amount of casualties on our side
  • loose nuclear materials is dangerous however we cannot risk personnel in an attempt to recover said materials under deep cover if at all possible
  • a miscalculation can lead to a larger conflagration and so we must be vigilant in our pursuit of peace
  • economically we must prepare for refugees and also the sudden collapse of the regime economically
  • The economics of the DPRK is such that we should do everything in our power now to dissuade them from wanting to go to war or initiate any sort of war with any of its neighbors.
  • During a crisis we should also send messages economically that perhaps an avenue of fighting is not in their best interest.
  • since we never know for certain what is going on in the DPRK we should always expect for a crisis to precipitate itself
  • the only way to get ahead of the crisis management matrix is to have intelligent sources on the ground
  • Human intelligence therefore would be a necessity.
  • It is essential that even if we are not able to get non-official cover (NOC) assets on the ground we should at the very least negotiate for official cover assets on the ground.
  • The U.N. should have a role in future force levels on the peninsula
  • a return to UNCURK or a U.N. Korean command may be needed to head off war for the short term and during spates of violence
  • With the U.N. Having a vested interest in what happens on the peninsula we should have a degree of better stability and open lines of communications with the DPRK and ROK-DPRK relations.
  • These are my suggestions for Korea policy.
Foreign Policy, Political Theory

Looking Inward: Notes on Recent U.S. Foreign Policy

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  • UNTET in Timor Leste was substantial for the australians and lasted many years after the initial conflagration
  • UNMIK was a mission in Kosovo and the “greater” balkans that brought about a change in leadership in the Former Yugoslav Republics that has lasted to this day
  • UNCURK was the UN high command in Korea that ensured peace during the cold war along with a substantial(42,000) amount of U.S. forces.
  • The U.N. has been involved in Afghanistan, Iraq, Congo, and Syria in the recent past, with varying degrees of success.
  • The reason the U.S. is “losing” so many wars is because the U.S. no longer has a mandate to provide peace and security in the world as in the immediate aftermath of the cold war
  • This is not due to the actions of any one U.S. president
  • the U.S. will require someone who can communicate effectively and persuasively with large swaths of the world in varying environs for a sustained period of time before the U.S. is again able to realize its potential in the global sphere.
  • this will take a concerted effort by said president that will require authority and mandate in all spheres of the diplomatic, Intelligence, military, and economic (DIME) paradigm.
  • the reason the U.S. lost its mandate to provide peace in the first place is its lack of coordination with the U.N.
  • this is due to the fall of the USSR and the subsequent american imperial phase that saw unrestrained power for much of the nineties.
  • it can be argued that this changed on September 11th 2001
  • the correct path after this catastrophe would have been an interventionist/internationalist bent rather than an interventionist/preemption bent
  • the administration at the time was so traumatized by 9/11 however and their perception during this event that they became extremely insular and provocative in their actions
  • in the bible it says that in the keeping of many counselors their is safety
  • the administration however took the exact opposite tact instead vetting extremely poorly the people who are counseling them, and not allowing enough  counselors in for fear of being seen as weak
  • this was a mistake
  • in the future the U.S. needs to seek out partners for its interventionist bent, and it should have an interventionist bent
  • however interventionism must be subservient to internationalism, for the long term future
  • this means the possible expansion of the in security council
  • amongst other diplomatic initiatives
African Affairs, East Asian Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Political Theory, Russian Affairs

Dark Source Minerals Will Only Increase Precipitous Decline in Energy Prices

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Recently in the news their have been reports about how much black market oil is circulating in the global oil markets that is coming from the islamic state. Indeed the amount of oil coming from them is substantial. And just recently a senior U.S. administration official confirmed that in excess of 500 million dollars worth of oil has made it from the Syrian battlefields and into the hands of global consumers. He goes on to stipulate that the oil mostly flows southward to President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, and up to Turkey. However this is only one of the sources of cheap black market oil that is making its way into the hands of consumers. These dark source minerals seem to be having a huge impact on the price of oil on international commodities indices around the world, particularly in the United States.

The amount of oil that has made its way into the hands of american consumers by way of fracking in the upper plains states cannot be understated. It had completely flipped the equation regarding the amount of oil that the United States consumes versus how much it imports, to a net positive for the united states. The idea that the united states would be a major oil producer was something that could not have been foreseen just five years ago. At that time there was an oil spill in the gulf of Mexico and it was uncertain what the future of oil would be in the equation of the united states going forward. The series of unfortunate events surrounding that accident have given way to new technologies which have opened up new sources of fossil fuels. This new way of extracting has had a deleterious effect on the major oil companies as well as the price of gasoline in the country. And, in addition, the idea that dark minerals is not a problem in the United States is simply not true. In 2008 the Department of the Interiors, Minerals Management Agency had several employees implicated in an access for funds investigation. And also the administration, recently, was forced to reevaluate its policy with oil export to Mexico after U.S. oil companies found a loophole that allowed them to bypass laws that effectively ban all oil exports from the United States. These are just a fraction of the many cases that the Department of Interior, and the Department of Energy investigate every year in the United States involving the violation of U.S. trade laws.

Russia has since the late eighteen hundreds been a major payer in the hunt, extraction, and consumption of oil in the world. There is no surprise then when it is alleged that there is a lot of cronyism involving today’s Russian oil tzars and their liquid gold. This should come as no surprise then that the people who control Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil and gas company. Have side deals and back doors that they transfer huge sums of oil from the Russian oil fields to illicit traders who no doubt have dubious intentions for their product, while making a quick buck. This too is a major downward pressure on the price of oil throughout the world.

In the middle east oil and power go hand in hand. With OPEC as its major conduit. The amount of oil OPEC, a major oil cartel distributes has been steadily above stated goals for at least the last year alone. This means that though there is an influx in the amount of oil available in the world, and the cartels main goal is to manipulate the price of oil for its members. OPEC, due to political pressures, as well as monumental deals such as the Iranian JCPOA, have not caused the member states to decrease supply for the market. Even though countries such as saudi Arabia, and Qatar now have dwindling supplies of Reserve currency in their treasuries. These actions have had a net downward pressure on international oil markets as well leading to lower prices at the pump, and smaller profit margins for the large oil companies.

The idea that the energy markets will rebound from the glut of oil in the world is a complete fallacy. Traders who hope to get an edge in these markets by playing them long will be in for a rude awakening when earning are announced. Even trying to pare your losses with short term options tactics could see your wallet take a severe blow. And the coming energy revolution which will take even more profits from the big energy companies will only make things worse. In short there is no known end to the precipitous fall in the price of oil and it seems as though that will never be abated so long as the amount of oil both legitimate and dark continues to flood the zone.

African Affairs, Domestic Policy, East Asian Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Affairs, Fiscal and Monetary Theory, Foreign Policy, Hispanola, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Political Theory, Russian Affairs

December Interest Rate Decision: A Welcome Respite

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One need only look at the United States, and its gold reserves an order to understand what it is that keeps countries as diverse as China, and the U.K.; North Korea, and France; South Africa, and Australia; going. Gold when held properly by a country can become a catalyst for growth, not only for the country in question, but increasingly; in an ever connected world, the entire world as well. I bring this up because as the New Year is approaching, and the Federal Reserve begins to decide for a final time this year, on a rate increase, I wanted to take this moment to elucidate what I think might happen if the Fed does indeed raise rates, and what the consequences of that would be.

Should the Federal Reserve indeed decide to raise rates I believe that it would be a boon for almost the entire world. My logic in this assumption has a lot to do with Reserve currencies around the world, Debt repayment by the United States to its own debtors, and manufacturing increases as a result of the lifting of the long standing embargo.

The United States’ reserve currency is almost completely in gold. This means that the actions of America in areas such as debt repayment, and inflation tapering, can have a cumulative effect on the U.S. markets which in turn may affect markets overseas.

And indeed the U.S. has begun lowering the budget deficit (which can only be done by repaying creditors). This action alone floods the Chinese (who are the U.S.’s number one holder of debt) markets with a powerful injection of U.S. currency which currently is pegged to the Chinese Yuan which in it of itself has a cumulative effect for the value of the monies that the Chinese receive from the U.S. Manufacturing as I think we’ve all seen can be a powerful catalyst for growth in a society (read: the industrial revolution) such as the United States. And with the Chinese heavily invested in mining giants such as Rio Tinto, Mittral Steel, and BHP Billiton; this makes for an absolute boondoggle when the U.S. does indeed raise interest rates on for its gold reserve currency.

Since before the beginning of 2014 we have a seen a dramatic drop in the U.S. of the price of everything from milk, to gasoline, to food in general. And this year in particular the inflation index has actually decreased overall for the year ending December 31st. What this has meant is that the American consumer is able to buy more things which have been really helpful for the markets. And with the price of gasoline expected to dip below forty dollars sometime next year (according to me), this will make for even more buying opportunities in U.S. equities.

By this chain of events creating a virtuous cycle we are able to see the changes that an increase in the amount it cost to borrow money in the U.S. raise the value of gold on the commodities markets, and will in turn  lead to higher returns for mining giants, which will then in turn fuel manufacturing throughout the world. This chain of events should be a welcome respite for U.S., and Asian markets which have been relatively weakened from a year of uncertainties. This new tact by the Federal Reserve should come as a welcome holiday gift indeed.

Domestic Policy, Political Theory, Public Health Policy

What Kyoto Means to the COP21 Climate Summit

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Today was the start of a global climate summit called COP21. This climate conference is being hosted by France, in Paris. However, it is the hope of the current American administration, that they will be able to capitalize on something which at the moment seems spine tingling close to be adopted. Namely a global agreement meant to abate climate change. As far as climate agreements are concerned this one would be totally inclusive. Encompassing the ideas of shifting attitudes of climate change, and what to do about them; the idea of bankrolling clean energy alternatives for emerging markets; from more established ones, rainforest preservation, diffusion of clean technologies, carbon taxes, environmental cleanup, and the ubiquitous goal of lowering the temperature of the world by two (2) degrees this century.

Before this conference a similar conference was held in the late 1990’s when then President Bill Clinton attended a summit in Kyoto, Japan. The so called Kyoto Protocols which were manifested during this conference called for similar cuts to the pollutants that chock off, streams, and water ways, in nearly every continent, particularly Asia. It should come as some surprise then that President Clinton never ratified the treaty, and in 2001 President George W. Bush pulled out of the treaty talk’s altogether, thereby abandoning all hope for ideas such as carbon taxes, to take hold here in the U.S. At the time it seemed like a good idea since we had an emergent China that the United States was very wary of, and India, the largest democracy in the world, was going through a raft of changes that made it difficult to judge what the future held in store for them. However with the abandonment of Kyoto the United States lost out on the logic that since we didn’t join then China, India, Brazil, and others openly wondered aloud as to why they should join the Protocols either. So then by the United States refusing to sign on we thereby ensured that the unsafe and inimical practices that China, India, and Brazil used an order to grow their economies would continue. What is also missing by us not joining Kyoto is the technological advances that countries like Japan, and Brazil had made in the automotive, and sulfur scrubbing technologies were never to make their way into the hands of American countries. Kyoto, for the faults that it presented in the U.S.’s eyes at the beginning of the century, at this late stage now looks like quite the bargain.

The climate is not going to change overnight. If the administration is hopeful for a reduction in the amount of sulfur in the atmosphere, they need look no further than the Kyoto protocols which were never adopted by the U.S. or major emerging markets. In my estimation for the administration to be successful at the climate talks perhaps beginning with the much leveraged Kyoto protocols while tacking on the idea of even newer emerging technologies, and so called climate grants, they should be able to come away from this conference with all goals, and more accomplished.

East Asian Affairs, Middle Eastern Affairs, Near East South Asian (NESA) Affairs, Political Theory

Nature of the Threat: Mongol vs. Daesh Tactics

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ISIS has adopted in many ways the look, and tactics of the late Mongol emperor’s that established the Yuan Dynasty, beginning with Genghis Khan. The following is a power point presentation that I’ve made an order to better elucidate that point for military commanders, and policy makers.

It can be accessed here: Nature of the Threat: Mongol vs. Daesh Tactics